Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Becomes Toss-Up as Polls Show Paxton and Talarico Neck-and-Neck
7/1/2026, 1:20:32 AM
Texas Senate Race Becomes Toss-Up
A New York Times/Siena poll of 656 likely voters (June 19-27) found Ken Paxton and James Talarico each at 47 percent, a tie within the 4.5-point margin of error. A Texas Politics Project survey (June 5-12, 1,200 voters) reported Paxton at 43 percent and Talarico at 42 percent, also within its 3.5-point error band.
Background: Paxton’s Scandals and Trump Endorsement
Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general, won the GOP primary over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. His record includes impeachment, a fraud and obstruction indictment, a divorce on “biblical grounds,” and an alleged affair with influencer Tracy Duhon. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton, reviving a nickname that likened Talarico to “Alfred E. Neuman.”
Voter Demographics & Key Numbers
Men back Paxton 57-36; women favor Talarico 56-38. Whites: Paxton 59-37; Blacks: Talarico 80-13; Hispanics: Talarico 61-29. Independents: 58-31 for Talarico. Character: 38 % view Paxton as having good character vs 56 % for Talarico; 50 % label Paxton too extreme vs 43 % for Talarico. Economic issues drive 28 % of voters. 23 % of independents are open to Talarico vs 7 % for Paxton; 9 % of 2024 Trump voters now back Talarico, 1 % of 2024 Harris voters back Paxton.
Why the Race Matters
Democrats need to flip four Republican-held Senate seats to regain a majority. A Texas win would be the first Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1988 and could tip the Senate balance. The closeness of the race has prompted national parties to consider shifting campaign dollars to Texas.
Official Statements & Campaign Messaging
President Trump called Paxton a “fighter for Texas.” Democratic strategists stress Talarico’s focus on everyday issues like food-price inflation. The Paxton campaign declined comment.
Criticism & Opposition
Critics call Paxton “too extreme” and lacking “good character,” citing impeachment, indictment and personal scandals. Republicans have used nicknames like “Low-T Talarico.” Talarico’s opponents label his gender-biology views “radical,” though most voters reject that label.
On-the-Ground Perspectives
Independent Melissa Daniels said Paxton focuses on cultural battles, not daily concerns. Republican Timothy Hanley called Talarico’s religious views “heretical.”
Conflicting Poll Results & Gaps
The NYT/Siena poll shows a 47-47 tie; the Texas Politics Project poll shows Paxton 43 % to Talarico 42 %. An April poll had Paxton trailing by eight points. Both lack data on non-respondents and rural-urban splits.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I think he’s focusing on the common issues that people have,” — Melissa Daniels, Independent
- “I honestly get the sense that people across the spectrum, across the state are tired of this ‘politics as professional wrestling,’ right?” — James Talarico, Democratic candidate
- “James Talarico’s version of the Bible and interpretation of the Bible is just not even close to in keeping with who God is,” — Timothy Hanley, Republican voter
What’s Next
The general election is set for November 3, 2026. Talarico has raised over $40 million; both campaigns will increase advertising as parties decide resource allocation. The result will show if Texas stays a GOP bastion or becomes a decisive Senate battleground.
