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Lula Leads Bolsonaro 48.8% to 42.3% in Runoff Poll

7/1/2026

49 9 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll projects President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will win the second-round runoff with 48.8% of the vote against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s 42.3%.
In a first-round scenario the poll shows Lula at 46.3%, Bolsonaro at 36.6%, Renan Santos 7.8%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.9% and Romeu Zema 2.0%.
The survey interviewed 4,999 people between June 26 and June 30 and has a one-point margin of error.

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Story summary

The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll projects President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will win the second-round runoff with 48.8% of the vote against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s 42.3%.
In a first-round scenario the poll shows Lula at 46.3%, Bolsonaro at 36.6%, Renan Santos 7.8%, Ronaldo Caiado 2.9% and Romeu Zema 2.0%.
The survey interviewed 4,999 people between June 26 and June 30 and has a one-point margin of error.