Full Breakdown
Lula Leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Potential Run-off, New Poll Shows
7/1/2026, 11:03:08 PM
Poll Results: Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro and Minor Candidates
A poll conducted by AtlasIntel in partnership with Bloomberg, released on July 1, indicates that incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would obtain 48.8 % of the vote in a hypothetical second-round contest against opposition Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who would receive 42.3 %. In a scenario that includes all candidates in the first round, Lula leads with 46.3 % while Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 36.6 %; Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema register 7.8 %, 2.9 % and 2.0 % respectively. The three minor candidates together total 12.7 %.
Candidates and Their Standing in the Poll
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the current head of state, appears as the front-runner with the highest share of support. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, identified as the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, occupies the second position. The remaining respondents favor Renan Santos (7.8 %), Ronaldo Caiado (2.9 %) and Romeu Zema (2.0 %). No other candidates are listed in the poll results. All three remain below ten percent.
Methodology and Statistical Margin
The survey sampled 4,999 Brazilian adults between June 26 and June 30. The poll’s reported margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point. The sample size and timing place the data collection within the final weeks before the October presidential election campaign intensifies. The ±1 % margin applies to each percentage.
Context: Shift Since April Survey
An earlier poll conducted in April showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 48 % each. The July poll reflects a widening gap, with Lula now ahead by roughly six points in the second-round projection and by ten points in the first-round distribution. The change suggests a movement in voter preference over the intervening months. Lula’s share rose 0.8 % while Flávio’s fell 5.7 %.
Implications for the October 2026 Election
If the election proceeds to a runoff, the poll suggests that Lula would retain a lead over Flávio Bolsonaro. The relative positions of the three minor candidates—Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema—indicate limited influence on a potential second-round outcome. The minor candidates together account for less than 13 % of support.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The article presents a single poll; no alternative surveys are cited for comparison. The margin of error of ±1 % and the sample size of 4,999 respondents limit the precision of the projections. No official statements from the candidates or electoral authorities are included, leaving their reactions to the poll unrecorded. The poll lacks demographic breakdowns, limiting analysis of support by age or region.
What’s Next: Election Timeline and Campaign Outlook
Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for October 2026. Depending on the first-round results, a second-round runoff could be required, pitting the top two candidates against each other. The poll’s findings are released ahead of the election, providing data that parties and analysts can reference.
