Early Polls Crown Front-Runners for the 2028 Presidential Race

Two independent surveys released this summer identify former Vice President Kamala Harris as the leading Democrat and Vice President JD Vance as the leading Republican among likely voters for the 2028 presidential nomination.

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• Quantus Insights (fieldwork July 3, 6 and 7; results released July 8) surveyed 1,140 respondents (±2.9 percentage points). Harris earned 35.3 %, Governor Gavin Newsom 17.7 %, Pete Buttigieg 12.9 % and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11.1 %. On the GOP side, Vance led with 42.2 %, Secretary of State Marco Rubio 25.9 % and Governor Ron DeSantis 8.7 %.

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• The Big Data Poll (June 26-28 2026; 1,261 registered Republicans, ±1.8 pp) found Vance at 35.4 % overall and 36.6 % among likely voters, while Rubio posted 16.5 % (17.5 % likely). On the Democratic side, Harris received 29.1 % and Newsom 15 %.

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• Earlier 2026 surveys—Center Square Voters’ Voice (June 1-4; 1,013 Democrats, ±1.93 pp) and Lake Research Partners (May 6-11; 800 primary voters, ±3.5 pp)—also placed Harris ahead of Newsom by double-digit margins (27 % vs 14 % and 26 % vs 17 % respectively).

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These polls arrive amid a “still-fluid” field with no candidate having formally announced a 2028 bid. The Quantus data echo a pattern observed in multiple 2026 polls, where Harris consistently outpaces her Democratic rivals, while Republicans appear more consolidated around Vance. The broader electorate expressed dissatisfaction, with 61.6 % saying the country is on the wrong track, a sentiment that historically influences presidential outcomes.

Newsweek

Vice President JD Vance has repeatedly declined to confirm a 2028 campaign, emphasizing his current duties. He told Megyn Kelly that “Yes, after the midterms, I will eventually have to make that decision.” In a CBS Sunday Morning interview he added, “I have no doubt that the president of the United States is going to be very supportive of anything that I ultimately decide to do.” At a White House news conference he cautioned that voters might view “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road” unfavorably. No comparable official comment from Harris or other Democratic figures appears in the available sources.

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Political analysts note that early preference polls chiefly capture name recognition and current party standing rather than definitive nominee forecasts. The Democratic field remains fragmented: while Harris commands a double-digit lead, candidates such as Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez together hold roughly a quarter of the support, and several others linger in single digits.

Newsweek

The surveys present divergent support levels for the same candidates. Harris’s backing ranges from 35.3 % (Quantus) to 29.1 % (Big Data) and 27 % (Center Square). Vance’s lead varies between 42.2 % (Quantus) and 35.4 % (Big Data). Additionally, the absence of any formal candidacy declarations leaves the field’s composition uncertain.

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• “Yes, after the midterms, I will eventually have to make that decision,” — JD Vance, interview with Megyn Kelly

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• “I have no doubt that the president of the United States is going to be very supportive of anything that I ultimately decide to do” — JD Vance, CBS Sunday Morning

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• “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road,” — JD Vance, Newsweek news conference

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• “There are few topics I want to talk about less.” — JD Vance, same Newsweek news conference

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Analysts stress that the next phase—fundraising, travel and early messaging—will determine whether Harris’s early polling advantage and Vance’s Republican lead evolve into durable coalitions as the 2028 primaries approach.

Newsweek