Story perspectives

Poll Shows Vance, Rubio Neck-and-Neck in GOP 2028 Race

7/26/2026

Left

Vance Tied

A July 2026 University of New Hampshire poll of Republican voters found Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio nearly tied.
The tie reflects growing voter unease with Vance’s vice-presidential performance and a recent media push.
Vance’s support fell from 53 % to 36 % and Rubio’s rose from 7 % to 26 %.
megadonor Ken Griffin said he would back Rubio over Vance if Rubio runs in 2028.

Right

Vance-Rubio Tie

A July 2026 University of New Hampshire poll of Republican primary voters found Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio nearly tied.
Party insiders say the poll shows a Vance-Rubio alliance, and President Donald Trump called Rubio the greatest secretary of state and a Vance-Rubio ticket unstoppable.
Rubio’s support rose 19 points since February while Vance’s fell 17 points.
Vance led among conservatives; Rubio performed better with moderates and libertarians.

Center

Vance-Rubio Tie

A July 2026 poll of Republican voters shows Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio nearly tied.
President Donald Trump said Vance and Rubio would make a “dream team,” but he offered no endorsement.
Vice President JD Vance told reporters he will decide on a 2028 run after the midterms.
An Emerson College poll of 1,100 likely voters showed Pete Buttigieg leading Democrats with 19%.

Blindspot

GOP megadonor Ken Griffin said he would back Marco Rubio over Vice President JD Vance if Rubio runs in the 2028 presidential race.
Within this story's sources, this angle appears mainly in Left-leaning coverage and receives less attention in Center-leaning coverage.

History

Historical Context

In 2016 the Republican primary field expanded to 17 candidates, and outsider Donald Trump secured the nomination with a 44.9% primary vote—over 14 million votes, the highest ever for a GOP contender. His win displaced establishment rivals and highlighted influence of mega-donors such as Ken Griffin. A July 2026 poll now shows Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio tied, reviving the outsider-establishment dynamic.

1 of 5

Vance Tied

A July 2026 University of New Hampshire poll of Republican voters found Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio nearly tied.
The tie reflects growing voter unease with Vance’s vice-presidential performance and a recent media push.
Vance’s support fell from 53 % to 36 % and Rubio’s rose from 7 % to 26 %.
megadonor Ken Griffin said he would back Rubio over Vance if Rubio runs in 2028.

1 / 5