Full Breakdown
Rubio Gains Ground as Vance’s Lead Shrinks in Early 2028 GOP Polls
7/26/2026, 5:44:18 AM
Shifting Poll Landscape
Recent surveys show Vice President JD Vance’s advantage over Secretary of State Marco Rubio narrowing in the race for the 2028 Republican nomination. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire reported Vance at 36 % and Rubio at 26 %, a ten-point gap far smaller than the 53 %-to-7 % lead Vance held in February. A Newsweek poll (June 26-28 2026, 1,261 registered Republicans) produced the same 36 %–26 % split.
An Emerson College poll (July 23) found the race essentially tied, with Vance at 39 % and Rubio at 38 %. An earlier AtlasIntel poll (May 4-7) showed Rubio ahead at 45 % to Vance’s 35 %. These divergent figures illustrate a volatile early-state environment.
Background & Context
Vance entered the contest as the presumptive heir to President Donald Trump, who praised both men as a “perfect ticket” on May 11. Rubio, highlighted by his diplomatic duties in Venezuela and the Iran conflict, presents a more moderate alternative. Both have described each other as friends, and Rubio has said he would back Vance if the vice president launches a 2028 campaign.
Data & Statistics
| Poll (Date) | Vance (%) | Rubio (%) |
|---|---|---|
| UNH (Feb 2024) | 53 | 7 |
| UNH (July 2024) | 36 | 26 |
| Newsweek (June 26-28 2026) | 36 | 26 |
| Emerson College (July 23 2026) | 39 | 38 |
| AtlasIntel (May 4-7 2026) | 35 | 45 |
Margins of error range from ±1.8 % to ±3.1 % (Zogby Analytics).
Official Statements & Responses
- Donald Trump said, “in all fairness, he’s the vice president,” when asked about Vance’s prospects, and has declined to commit to a 2028 run.
- Marco Rubio indicated willingness to support Vance should the latter decide to run, describing the two as close friends in the administration.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The polling picture is inconsistent:
- UNH and Newsweek agree on a 36 %–26 % split, while Emerson College shows a near-tie (39 % vs 38 %).
- AtlasIntel reverses the order, giving Rubio a clear lead (45 % vs 35 %).
No candidate has formally announced a 2028 campaign, and methodological differences (online panels vs. text-message recruitment) leave the true state of the GOP field uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “In all fairness, he's the vice president,” — Donald Trump
- “Now Vance is at 36 percent, dropping like a rock. And look at Marco Rubio up there, climbing up to Mount Washington up to 26 percent,” — Harry Enten, chief data analyst
