Story perspectives

Poll Shows Democrat Talarico Leads Texas AG Race

7/29/2026

Summary

Talarico Leads

A July 28, 2026 poll of 1,048 likely Texas voters shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 45% to 40%.
He leads independents 43%-23%, moderates 54%-20%, Black voters 71%-8% and Latino voters 66%-20%.
42% trust Talarico on economic challenges versus 35% for Paxton, with affordability the top concern.
Talarico has raised $28 million and Paxton $1.6 million.
Markets give Paxton 57% odds while the Cook Report rates the race Lean Republican.

Summary

Paxton Under Scrutiny

A July 14 complaint alleged Ken Paxton voted from a former address, possibly violating state law.
At a June 23 sheriff’s association gathering, Paxton called James Talarico anti-police because votes to reduce sentences and end qualified immunity, and pledged to protect it and fund U.S. President Donald Trump’s security agenda.
Talarico’s July 21 response highlighted his directing billions to law-enforcement and pledged recruitment, higher pay, mental-health services, crime-prevention programs, and higher sheriff salaries.

Summary

Talarico Fundraising Tour

Talarico capped a 750-mile bus tour with a fundraising benefit in McAllen, handing out hot plates to donors for a cancer-patient fundraiser.
Message-testing data showed Paxton’s attacks on Talarico’s past gender-comment remarks moved Hispanic men more than any other issue, prompting a tactical shift.
Talarico’s campaign aired a Spanish-language ad during the Mexico-vs-Panama World Cup match and opened a Spanish-language social-media channel.

History

Historical Context

In 1994, the Republican Revolution gave Texas its first statewide legislative majority: George W. Bush won the governorship and Republicans grew their House delegation from nine to eleven seats. They also captured 14 of 31 Senate seats, though Democrats retained control. That realignment, powered by the Contract with America and heavy fundraising, underlies today’s tight race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.

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Talarico Leads

A July 28, 2026 poll of 1,048 likely Texas voters shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 45% to 40%.
He leads independents 43%-23%, moderates 54%-20%, Black voters 71%-8% and Latino voters 66%-20%.
42% trust Talarico on economic challenges versus 35% for Paxton, with affordability the top concern.
Talarico has raised $28 million and Paxton $1.6 million.
Markets give Paxton 57% odds while the Cook Report rates the race Lean Republican.

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