Full Breakdown
New TPOR Poll Shows Democrat James Talarico Leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Race
7/29/2026, 1:32:15 AM
Core Event
A Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) survey of 1,048 likely voters conducted July 15-17 found Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by five points—45 % to 40 %—with a ±3.4 % margin of error. Fourteen percent of respondents were undecided.
Background & Context
The race to replace long-time Republican Senator John Cornyn has drawn national attention because of its potential impact on Senate control in the 2026 midterms. Earlier TPOR polling after the May 26 runoff showed a narrower Talarico lead (47 % to 44 %). A New York Times/Siena poll on June 30 reported the candidates tied at 47 % each.
Data & Statistics
- Overall support: Talarico 45 % vs. Paxton 40 %.
- Independents: Talarico 43 % vs. Paxton 23 %; 29 % undecided.
- Moderates: Talarico 54 % vs. Paxton 20 %.
- Non-college voters: Talarico 45 % vs. Paxton 36 %.
- College-educated voters: Talarico leads by 1 point.
- Racial breakdown: Black voters 71 % for Talarico, 8 % for Paxton; Latino voters 66 % for Talarico, 20 % for Paxton; White voters 53 % for Paxton, 33 % for Talarico.
- Fundraising (Q2 2026): Talarico $28 million; Paxton $1.6 million.
Official Statements & Responses
- Talarico campaign: Emphasized “affordability” and “bread-and-butter” issues, highlighting outreach to Hispanic voters with a Spanish-language ad during the World Cup and a bus tour of border towns.
Criticism & Opposition
- Alex Alarcon, Paxton campaign: “Hispanics know Ken Paxton is a strong man who shares our values, and we see in James Talarico a wimpy liberal.”
- Ash Wright, Democratic strategist: Praised Talarico’s resilience, noting his ability to “take shots and just keep moving on.”
On-the-Ground Reports
In the Rio Grande Valley, local business leaders said Trump-era immigration enforcement has strained the labor market, with a mayor warning, “When the U.S. doesn’t provide economic opportunity for the people at the border, it will create this situation.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- The TPOR poll shows a five-point Democratic lead, while the June 30 New York Times/Siena poll reported a dead-heat.
- A University of Texas/ Texas Politics Project poll from June 23 placed Paxton at 43 % and Talarico at 42 %, within the margin of error.
- Prediction-market data (Kalshi, Polymarket) still favor Paxton, suggesting a divergence between voter surveys and market expectations.
Verbatim Quotes
- “He’s pretty steady and focused on the issues that matter to families,”
- “When the U.S. doesn’t provide economic opportunity for the people at the border, it will create this situation,”
- “Hispanics know Ken Paxton is a strong man who shares our values, and we see in James Talarico a wimpy liberal,”
- “The guy’s ability to take shots and just keep moving on and stay in elected office is unlike anything I’ve ever seen in my career, in 25 years of running campaigns,”
Why It Matters
The poll indicates Talarico’s appeal among independents, moderates, and non-college voters could offset the traditional Republican advantage among white voters. A sustained lead could produce the first Democratic statewide victory in Texas in over three decades, potentially shifting the Senate balance.
What’s Next
Early voting begins in October; the general election is set for November 3. Both campaigns will intensify Hispanic outreach and continue emphasizing affordability, health-care costs, and border-security policies.
