Democratic Upset Possible in Texas Senate Race

Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) is contesting Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) for a U.S. Senate seat. The contest has drawn national attention because a recent Fox News poll shows Talarico leading 51 percent to Paxton’s 48 percent.

The Hill

Sabato emphasized that Paxton’s candidacy is hampered by multiple controversies. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House, faces twenty charges of misconduct in office, is under indictment on three felony securities-fraud counts, and has been accused of an extramarital affair. Sabato argued that these issues could alienate donors and voters.

The Hill

Campaign-finance records indicate Paxton has raised about $9.2 million, while Talarico has amassed roughly $68 million, including a record $30 million in the second quarter of this year. The same Fox News poll cited above gives Talarico a three-point advantage.

The Hill

He noted that the Democratic side has been receiving daily calls from political insiders expressing optimism, and he credited Talarico’s “great candidate” profile while stressing that Paxton’s “political liabilities” are the decisive factor. Sabato warned that many potential donors are reluctant to associate publicly with Paxton because of his record.

The Hill

• “Since 1994, I’ve gotten call after call virtually every day from Texans in politics on the Democratic side, saying, ‘This is the year. We’re finally gonna do it,’” — University, of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato

The Hill