Democrats Gain Lead in Texas’ 15th Congressional District

A House Majority PAC-sponsored poll conducted July 23-28, 2026 among 500 likely voters shows Democrat Bobby Pulido ahead of incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz — 51 percent to 45 percent, with a ± 4.4 percentage-point margin of error. An earlier WelcomePAC survey of 802 likely voters from May 18-25, 2026 placed Pulido at 48 percent and De La Cruz at 46 percent (± 4.1 points). Prediction-market data reinforce the shift: Kalshi lists Pulido at 67 percent versus De La Cruz at 41 percent, while Polymarket shows Pulido at 67 percent and De La Cruz at 30 percent.

Newsweek

The district, reshaped by Texas’ 2025 congressional map, runs through heavily Latino South Texas. President Donald Trump carried the redrawn district by nearly 18 points in 2024, establishing a strong Republican baseline. De La Cruz first won the seat in 2022, becoming the first Republican representative of the district since its creation in 1901, and was re-elected in 2024 with 57.1 percent of the vote. The new boundaries have prompted analysts to view the district as a potential “real Democratic target,” a sentiment reflected in Sabato’s Crystal Ball rating change on July 30 from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”

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• House Majority PAC poll (July 23-28, 2026): Pulido 51 % vs De La Cruz 45 %.

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• WelcomePAC poll (May 18-25, 2026): Pulido 48 % vs De La Cruz 46 %.

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• Kalshi market: Pulido 67 % vs De La Cruz 41 %.

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• Polymarket: Pulido 67 % vs De La Cruz 30 %.

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Fundraising totals reported by Ballotpedia as of June 30, 2026 show De La Cruz with $5.27 million raised, compared with Pulido’s $2.96 million.

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Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning Tejano musician and small-business owner, has framed his campaign around local identity, emphasizing independence from national party labels. His campaign ad declares, “I’m not Team Red or Team Blue. South Texas, I’m Team You.” De La Cruz’s campaign highlights her incumbency, legislative record—including a bill targeting fentanyl trafficking—and support for border security, seniors’ benefits, and South Texas agriculture.

Newsweek

• “I’m not Team Red or Team Blue. South Texas, I’m Team You.” — Democrat Bobby Pulido, majority PAC spokesman

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