Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Tightens as Polls Show Democrat James Talarico Narrowly Ahead of Republican Ken Paxton
8/6/2026, 9:43:30 PM
Current Poll Landscape
Recent surveys show Democrat James Talarico holding a slim lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the 2026 U.S. Senate contest. A poll by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, conducted July 27 and released in early August, lists Talarico at 47 % and Paxton at 45 %, within the ±2.83-point margin of error. A Fox News poll after a July 30 interview with Sean Hannity reports a three-point advantage for Talarico (51 % to 48 %). The Hill’s coverage of the same TSU survey echoes the 47-45 split and notes 6 % undecided.
Background & Context
Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a May 26 primary runoff, with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. His tenure as attorney general included a 2023 impeachment on corruption charges (later acquitted) and a high-profile divorce filed on “biblical grounds” by his wife, Rep. Angela Paxton.
James Talarico, a state representative and former teacher, won the Democratic Senate primary by defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett on March 3. Crockett later endorsed Talarico but expressed doubts about unified Black support.
Data & Statistics
- Black voter sentiment: 7 % say they are less likely to vote after Crockett’s loss; 79 % intend to vote for Talarico, 12 % for Paxton.
- Hispanic voter preference: 59 % favor Talarico, 41 % Paxton; 61 % are more concerned about Paxton’s character than Talarico’s perceived extremism.
- Favorability (TSU poll): Talarico 46 % favorable / 47 % unfavorable; Paxton 39 % favorable / 57 % unfavorable.
- Fundraising: Talarico raised $30 million in Q2, more than triple Paxton’s $9 million.
- Demographic leads: Talarico leads among Black voters, Hispanics, moderates, voters under 30, women, and college-educated voters; Paxton leads among White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, and voters 65 +.
Criticism & Opposition
State Rep. Jolanda Jones, a Houston Democrat, criticized Talarico for being “unwilling” to engage directly with Black leaders, urging a substantive conversation to earn community support.
On-the-Ground Reports
Talarico announced a $25 million outreach initiative for Black voters at a Houston forum that grew tense as participants pressed for concrete policy commitments. He also held a 75-minute Zoom call with Black elected officials, including Rep. Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, to discuss priorities.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the size of Talarico’s lead: TSU shows a 2-point edge, Fox News a 3-point edge, and Texas Public Opinion Research a 5-point advantage (45 % to 40 %). Favorability gaps also vary, with some outlets reporting Talarico’s unfavorable rating at 47 % and others at 57 %. The margin of error in each poll prevents a definitive conclusion, and voter intent among independents remains insufficiently detailed.
What’s Next
The general election is scheduled for November 3. Both campaigns are intensifying outreach to key demographics, with Talarico emphasizing economic-issue messaging and Paxton promoting tax-break proposals for medical expenses and home down-payments. The outcome will determine whether Texas flips a Senate seat for the first time since 1988, potentially shifting the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
