Super El Niño Threatens California Coast with Record Sea Levels and Flooding

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates an 81 % chance the event will reach “very strong” status between October and December, a level many experts label a Super El Niño. Ocean temperatures are already about 1.2 °C above average, and models show the warming persisting through the winter and possibly into 2027.

CNN

El Niño raises sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, shifting atmospheric circulation and altering weather patterns worldwide. The current warming occurs against a backdrop of long-term climate change, which has added roughly six to twelve inches of sea-level rise since the early 1900s. This combination sets the stage for unprecedented coastal impacts.

The Press Democrat

• King tides: The tidal cycle will peak toward the end of the year, producing “super tides or king tides” that will stack on the elevated sea level.

Bay Nature Magazine

• Attendance: The virtual town hall hosted by State Sen. Mike McGuire drew more than 5,700 viewers.

The Press Democrat

• Model consensus: All major El Niño prediction models agree on a strong to record-strong event.

CNN

Sen. Mike McGuire said the town hall was meant to “separate hype from reality” and provide guidance for the upcoming season. Climate scientist Daniel Swain called the ocean temperatures “rather extraordinary” and noted a shift toward a particularly wet winter across California.

Eureka Times-Standard

California’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) is coordinating with the National Guard, California Highway Patrol, Caltrans, Cal Fire and the Department of Water Resources. Assistant Director Nate Ortiz explained that Cal OES is “leaning into” the flooding scenario, syncing preparedness plans and pre-positioning resources ahead of the predicted storm season.

The Press Democrat

• “We want to separate hype from reality,” — Sen. Mike McGuire

The Press Democrat

• “I think coastal flooding is going to probably be an issue almost no matter what else happens,” — Daniel Swain

Bay Nature Magazine

• “Likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast associated with this event,” — Mark Merrifield, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

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• “CalOES is planning for the worst, and we’re hoping for the best,” — Nate Ortiz

Eureka Times-Standard

Ortiz urged Californians to sign up for local emergency alerts, assemble a grab-and-go bag with essential documents, and develop a family communication plan.

The Press Democrat

The projected surge, combined with higher waves and intensified rainfall, could cause coastal flooding, salt-water intrusion, and accelerated shoreline erosion. Merrifield highlighted ecological consequences: warming waters will suppress upwelling, altering nutrient flows and increasing risk of harmful algal blooms and domoic acid in Dungeness crab. A wetter winter may also set the stage for greater wildfire risk the following summer.

Eureka Times-Standard

Sources agree on the likelihood of record sea levels, but differ on the timing of the most severe impacts. Precise regional forecasts for wave heights and exact flood timing remain uncertain.

Eureka Times-Standard

NOAA projects the El Niño to peak in late fall or early winter before weakening next year. Cal OES will continue coordination calls with the National Weather Service, the Flood Operations Center and local governments to refine risk assessments and update evacuation guidance as model outputs evolve. Residents are encouraged to stay tuned to official alerts and review their emergency plans throughout the upcoming months.

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