Full Breakdown
Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Threatens the Hawaiian Islands
8/13/2026, 11:44:45 AM
Core Event: Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Approaches Hawaii
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated a system over 1,000 mi east-southeast of Honolulu as Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C. It carries a 90 % chance of developing into a tropical depression, storm or hurricane within a week. Models show strengthening and a track toward the islands, with heavy rain expected on the Big Island Friday night and spreading to Maui, O‘ahu, Kaua‘i and Moloka‘i over the weekend. The greatest threat is life-threatening flooding and mudslides, with forecast rainfall of 5–10 inches island-wide and isolated amounts up to 20 inches. The system’s central pressure is estimated at 1003 mb, with sustained winds near 35 mph and higher gusts possible.
Background & Context: Active Eastern Pacific Season and El Niño Influence
The Eastern Pacific is ahead of climatology, with seven named systems already and the eighth expected by August 21. A strong El Niño is raising sea-surface temperatures and weakening trade winds, conditions that favor tropical development. Hurricane Hone, a Category 1 storm that passed within 50 mi of South Point on August 25 2024, illustrates the potential for significant impacts without a direct landfall.
Data & Statistics
- Development probability: 90 % (National Weather Service)
- Current intensity: 1003 mb pressure; ~35 mph winds, higher gusts possible
- Rainfall forecast: 5–10 inches across most islands; up to 20 inches locally (Michael Brennan, NHC)
- Wind hazards: Gusty winds capable of downing trees and power lines
- Surf threat: Easterly swells potentially exceeding 15 ft, with isolated 20-ft reports
Official Statements & Responses
Maui Mayor Richard Bissen urged residents to ready emergency supplies and check on vulnerable neighbors. Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi advised O‘ahu residents to review emergency plans and secure property. Amos Lonokailua-Hewett, administrator of the Maui Emergency Management Agency, described coordination with the National Weather Service and state agencies. The National Weather Service reiterated the need for preparation this weekend.
Verbatim Quotes
- “With a potential tropical storm heading toward Maui County in the coming days, now is the time to get ready,” — Mayor Richard Bissen
- “Heavy rain can quickly create dangerous conditions in our streams, roads and steep areas, so we need everyone to understand the risks where they live and know what they will do if conditions change,” — Amos Lonokailua-Hewett
- “This is the time to prepare, not panic,” — Mayor Rick Blangiardi
- “Residents and visitors should prepare now for potential tropical cyclone impacts this weekend.” — National Weather Service
Timeline
- August 12 2026 – NHC issues the Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C designation.
- Later this week – System expected to strengthen into a tropical depression or storm.
- Friday night – Heavy rain anticipated on the Big Island.
- Saturday–Sunday – Rain bands move across Maui, O‘ahu, Kaua‘i and Moloka‘i; surf and wind hazards increase.
- Early Thursday – Possible issuance of tropical storm or hurricane watches for portions of the islands.
Why It Matters
Projected rainfall could trigger flash flooding and mudslides in steep, forested areas, threatening communities and infrastructure. Elevated surf and wind pose risks to coastal properties, marine activities and power utilities. A dry air mass ahead of the system also raises wildfire concerns on Friday, according to the Honolulu National Weather Service office.
What’s Next
The NHC may assign a name—potentially Hernan or Lala—once the system reaches tropical-storm strength, likely by Thursday. Forecast models suggest watches could be issued as early as Wednesday night. Residents should monitor updates from the NHC, the National Weather Service and local emergency management agencies throughout the weekend.
