Full Breakdown
Michigan Senate Race: Rogers Holds Narrow Lead Over El-Sayed in August 2026 Fox News Poll
8/15/2026, 12:56:45 AM
Background & Context
Democratic activist Abdul El-Sayed secured the Michigan Democratic Senate nomination in August, becoming the first Muslim Democrat to win a U.S. Senate nomination in the state. Former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers is the Republican nominee. The race is viewed as pivotal for control of the U.S. Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-45 majority excluding independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King. Michigan voted for Donald Trump by less than two points in 2024 and for Joe Biden by less than three points in 2020, underscoring its swing-state status.
Poll Findings (Data & Statistics)
- Overall support: The Fox News poll conducted August 6-10 2026 surveyed 1,006 registered Michigan voters and found Rogers leading El-Sayed 51 % to 47 %, a four-point margin within the poll’s ±3 percentage-point margin of error.
- Party unity: 96 % of Republican respondents back Rogers; 91 % of Democratic respondents back El-Sayed.
- Demographic splits: Men favor Rogers by 11 points (55 % vs 44 %); women are essentially tied (49 % vs 48 %). White evangelical Christians, rural voters and white men without a college degree back Rogers, while liberal voters, Black voters, urban residents and voters under 30 back El-Sayed.
- Issue priorities: Inflation is the top issue for 38 % of respondents, followed by immigration/border security and health care (each 14 %). Voters who prioritize inflation or health care lean toward El-Sayed by 10 and 47 points respectively.
- Favorability: El-Sayed carries a net favorability of -13 %; Rogers a net of -6 %.
- Perceived extremism: 54 % say El-Sayed is “too extreme,” while 51 % view Rogers as “too close to Trump.”
- Foreign-policy stance: 44 % favor continued U.S. military aid to Israel; 55 % oppose it. Those favoring aid back Rogers by 45 points; those opposing aid back El-Sayed by 29 points.
- Economic anxiety: Four in ten voters say they are falling behind financially; this group backs El-Sayed by 24 points.
Official Statements & Responses
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-conducted the Fox News poll, said the left-leaning energy in Michigan “should help with turnout.”
Political science professor Robert Y. Shapiro of Columbia University noted the poll’s “encouraging sign” for El-Sayed reflects his ability to avoid a severe trailing position despite being portrayed as an extremist and anti-Israel candidate.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Other recent Michigan polls differ from the Fox News results. An EPIC-MRA poll conducted July 24-31 2026 showed Rogers ahead by three points (46 % vs 43 %). A Mitchell Research & Communications poll of 672 likely voters on July 28-29 2026 reported a tie at 45 % each. Both surveys predate the primary and have margins of error ranging from 3.77 % to 4 %. The discrepancies highlight uncertainty about the exact size of Rogers’s lead and the impact of primary dynamics on general-election preferences.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The energy is on the left in Michigan, as it is throughout the country, and that should help with turnout,” — The Republican
These elements together illustrate a closely contested Senate race in a pivotal swing state, with demographic, issue-based, and partisan factors shaping a narrow Republican advantage in the latest poll, while alternative surveys suggest a more competitive environment.
