Full Breakdown
Trump Unpopularity Shapes Arizona Gubernatorial Contest
8/23/2026, 9:05:27 PM
Core Event: Polls Show President Trump’s Low Approval Dragging Republican Andy Biggs
Quantus Insights poll of 780 likely voters on August 21 found Hobbs ahead of Biggs, 49.1 % to 43.2 %, with six % undecided. The same poll showed 55.4 % disapprove of Trump versus 43.4 % approve (net –12.0).
Background & Context: Primary Victory and Party Dynamics
Biggs secured the Republican nomination on July 21, winning 74 % of the primary vote. Governor Katie Hobbs, the Democratic incumbent, was unopposed after her 2022 win over Kari Lake.
Data & Statistics: Voter Preferences and Demographic Splits
- Overall Preference: Hobbs leads Biggs 49.1 %–43.2 % (Quantus, Aug 21).
- Age Groups: Hobbs leads voters 18-29 (80.6 %) and 30-44 (63.3 %); among 45-64 she has 48 % and 44 % among 65+.
- Geography: Urban voters favor Hobbs 56 % to 40.4 %; rural/town voters favor Biggs 47.6 % to 32.8 %.
- Party Loyalty: 75 % of Republican likely voters intend to back Biggs; 86 % of Democrats plan to vote for Hobbs. Cross-over intent is modest (15 % of Republicans consider Hobbs, 3 % of Democrats consider Biggs).
- Trump-First vs. Party-Loyalist Republicans: “Trump-First” Republicans back Biggs 84 % to 6 %; “Party-Loyalist” Republicans back him 69 % to 24 %.
- Issue Trust: Hobbs leads on water, education, housing, the economy and data-center expansion. Biggs leads only on immigration, within the poll’s margin of error.
- Running-Mate Effects: Former Mesa Mayor John Giles on Hobbs’s ticket makes 35 % of independent likely voters more likely to support her, while 18 % are less likely. Among Party-Loyalist Republicans, 29 % are more likely and 26 % less likely to back Hobbs; only 16 % of Trump-First Republicans are more likely, with 43 % less likely. Conversely, 55 % of Republicans say Sine Kerr boosts their likelihood to vote for Biggs, while 53 % of Democrats say the same ticket makes them less likely to support him.
Official Statements & Responses: Analysts Link National Mood to State Race
Quantus described the Trump approval gap as “lopsided,” with 53.2 % of respondents strongly disapproving versus 38 % strongly approving.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Up to now, Katie Hobbs has had the general election campaign all to herself,” — Noble
What’s Next
Arizona voters will decide the governor’s office in the November general election. Campaigns will focus on older voters, suburban independents and the divergent Republican factions highlighted in recent polling.
