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Lula Leads Bolsonaro by One Point in Runoff Polls

8/24/2026

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Story summary
  • President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in runoff polls ahead of the October election.
  • A Nexus poll of 2,006 respondents (August 21-23) gave Lula 46% and Bolsonaro 45% in a simulated runoff.
  • Datafolha poll released August 21 gave Lula 47% and Bolsonaro 43% in a simulated runoff.
  • Datafolha noted Lula’s lead narrowed to one point, within its two-point margin of error.