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Story summary
- Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed leads four new Michigan Senate polls over Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers.
- An AARP poll shows El-Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 47% among likely voters surveyed Aug 9-11, 2026.
- Kalshi gives El-Sayed a 63% chance and Polymarket a 65% chance of winning.
- Senate-control markets show Republicans at 54% on Kalshi and Democrats at 51% on Polymarket.
