Michigan Senate Race Tightens as Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed Takes Lead in Recent Polls

Four new surveys released in August indicate that progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow lead over former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in the Michigan U.S. Senate contest. The AARP poll (surveyed 877 likely voters August 9-11) recorded El-Sayed at 48 % versus Rogers at 47 %. A Susquehanna poll (surveyed 800 likely voters August 11-17) showed El-Sayed up 7 points (46 % to 39 %). A TIPP Insights poll (surveyed 1,215 likely voters August 6-10) gave El-Sayed a 3-point edge (45 % to 42 %). A GBAO poll (surveyed 800 likely voters August 6-10) placed him 6 points ahead (50 % to 44 %).

Newsweek

The race follows the retirement of Democratic Senator Gary Peters. El-Sayed secured the Democratic nomination by defeating centrist Representative Haley Stevens in a closely contested primary, winning by a single point. The primary was marked by a sharp debate over U.S. support for Israel, a stance that may influence voters in Michigan’s sizable Arab-American and Jewish communities.

Newsweek

• AARP poll (Aug 9-11): El-Sayed 48 % – Rogers 47 %; Black voters: El-Sayed 41-point lead.

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• Susquehanna poll (Aug 11-17): El-Sayed 46 % – Rogers 39 %; Favorability: El-Sayed 31 % favorable, 45 % unfavorable; Rogers 28 % favorable, 37 % unfavorable.

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• TIPP Insights poll (Aug 6-10): El-Sayed 45 % – Rogers 42 %.

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• GBAO poll (Aug 6-10): El-Sayed 50 % – Rogers 44 %.

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• Fox News poll (Aug 6-10, 1,006 registered voters): Rogers 51 % – El-Sayed 47 % (earlier in August).

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• EPIC-MRA/MIRS poll (July 24-31, 600 voters): Rogers 46 % – El-Sayed 43 %.

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Newsweek’s outreach to both campaigns did not yield comment at the time of reporting.

Newsweek

Polls diverge on both the size of El-Sayed’s lead and overall favorability. While the AARP and GBAO surveys show single-digit advantages, the earlier Fox poll placed Rogers ahead by four points. All four August polls recorded negative favorability for both candidates, suggesting voter ambivalence. No data are provided on fundraising, voter turnout projections, or the impact of third-party candidates, leaving key variables unmeasured.

Newsweek

• “A pretty sobering poll for Abdul, but lot of time left to turn it around.” — Mike Hellis, democratic strategist

Newsweek

Michigan’s Class 1 Senate seat is pivotal for control of the chamber. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority; Democrats must defend all incumbent seats and flip at least four others to claim a majority. A loss in Michigan would force Democrats to win additional seats in states that President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024, a considerably steeper path to Senate control.

Newsweek

The general election is scheduled for November 2026. Both campaigns will continue to court independents and moderate voters as the race remains within single-digit margins in the latest polling. Prediction markets have shown a modest edge for El-Sayed, but the volatility of August polling underscores the contest’s uncertainty.

Newsweek