Story perspectives

Hilton’s Poll Shows Becerra Leading California 49.2%–41%

8/25/2026

Center

Becerra Leads Poll

A poll commissioned by Republican Steve Hilton’s campaign showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading 49.2% to 41% in California’s governor race.
The narrower margin contrasts with earlier surveys giving Becerra double-digit leads and with prediction-market odds favoring him.
The Wolfson poll ran Aug 14-16, surveyed 912 voters via MMS text-to-web, 3.3-point error.
June and early-August polls showed Becerra ahead 18-25 points; UC Berkeley Aug 3-9 gave 55% to 37%.

Right

Hilton Polls Becerra

A poll commissioned by Republican Steve Hilton’s campaign found Democrat Xavier Becerra ahead of Hilton 49.2% to 41% among likely California voters.
Hilton’s favorability rating of 25.2% was more than double Becerra’s 11.5%, while 55.9% of likely voters said California is on the wrong track.
The poll surveyed 912 registered Californians Aug 14-16 using text-to-web, 3.3-point margin.
A June UC Irvine poll showed Hilton narrowly leading Becerra 47%-44% in Orange County.

Blindspot

Prediction-market platforms Polymarket, Kalshi and OddsShopper assign Becerra roughly a 93%-96% chance of winning, leaving Hilton with about 3%-4%, a stark contrast to the Wolfson poll’s narrower 49.2%-41% margin.
Within this story's sources, this angle appears mainly in Center-leaning coverage and receives less attention in Right-leaning coverage.

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Becerra Leads Poll

A poll commissioned by Republican Steve Hilton’s campaign showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading 49.2% to 41% in California’s governor race.
The narrower margin contrasts with earlier surveys giving Becerra double-digit leads and with prediction-market odds favoring him.
The Wolfson poll ran Aug 14-16, surveyed 912 voters via MMS text-to-web, 3.3-point error.
June and early-August polls showed Becerra ahead 18-25 points; UC Berkeley Aug 3-9 gave 55% to 37%.

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