Full Breakdown
California Gubernatorial Race Tightens as New Poll Shows Becerra’s Lead Shrink to Eight Points
8/25/2026, 12:56:23 AM
Core Event
A poll commissioned by Republican candidate Steve Hilton and conducted by Columbia University pollster David Wolfson between August 14 and early August surveyed 912 California registered voters. The Wolfson poll found Democrat Xavier Becerra at 49.2 % support and Hilton at 41 %, with 9.8 % undecided. The eight-point gap is the narrowest reported for the race and marks the first time Becerra has fallen below a majority among likely November voters.
Background & Context
Xavier Becerra, former U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services, previously served as California’s attorney general and a member of Congress. Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to former British prime minister David Cameron, received former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in April 2026.
Earlier statewide surveys showed double-digit leads for Becerra: a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll gave Becerra 55 % to Hilton’s 37 %; a Public Policy Institute of California survey reported a 61 %–36 % split; and a May IGS poll showed a 52 %–31 % margin.
Data & Statistics
- Support: Becerra 49.2 % vs. Hilton 41 % (Wolfson poll).
- Undecided: 9.8 % of respondents.
- Favorable ratings: Hilton 25.2 % very favorable, Becerra 11.5 % very favorable.
- Personal ratings: Becerra 37.2 % favorable, 49.8 % unfavorable; Hilton 41.5 % favorable, 44.6 % unfavorable.
- State direction: 55.9 % say California is on the “wrong track.”
- Voter commitment: 74.5 % of those who have chosen a candidate say they will definitely vote for that person.
Official Statements & Responses
Prediction-market data cited by Newsweek show Becerra’s odds of winning at roughly 93 %–96 %, with Hilton’s odds ranging from 3 %–4 % across platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and OddsShopper.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Xavier Becerra’s support is collapsing as more and more Californians learn about his horrific record as HHS Secretary, sending thousands of Latino kids into the clutches of child sex and labor traffickers,” — Steve Hilton
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The Wolfson poll’s tighter margin contrasts with earlier independent surveys that showed Becerra leading by 18 to 25 points. Sources note differences in sample size (912 vs. 2,310 voters), methodology (MMS text-to-web vs. traditional panels), and field dates, making direct comparisons imperfect. No additional independent poll covering the same period has been released, leaving a gap in verification of the sudden shift.
What Happens Next
The November 3, 2026 general election is scheduled, with mail-in ballots to be mailed starting in October. Hilton has challenged Becerra to a series of debates, though dates have not been set. Forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continue to rate the race as “safe” for Democrats, but the new poll suggests a more competitive environment that will be closely monitored as the election approaches.
