Full Breakdown
Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman Leads GOP Counterpart Among Republican Voters, Poll Shows
8/27/2026, 1:22:16 AM
Core Findings
A poll commissioned by *The New York Times*, *The Philadelphia Inquirer* and Siena University finds that 73 % of registered Republican voters in Pennsylvania view Senator John Fetterman favorably, outpacing the 63 % favorability rating for Republican Senator Dave McCormick. Overall, 49 % of likely voters rate Fetterman favorably versus 43 % unfavorably.
Background & Context
Senator Fetterman, a first-term Democrat from Braddock, has frequently appeared on conservative media and praised President Donald Trump on immigration enforcement and “Trump Accounts” for children. He also positioned himself as a staunch defender of Israel after the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack, drawing praise from Republicans and criticism from many Democrats.
Data & Statistics
- Republican favorability: 73 % for Fetterman vs. 63 % for McCormick.
- Democratic favorability: 22 % for Fetterman.
- Independent voters: 63 % favorable toward Fetterman.
- Sample: 760 likely voters surveyed beginning Aug. 17, 2026.
- Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points.
Official Statements & Responses
Fetterman said he would consider leaving the Democratic Party only if it “formally became the anti-Israel party.”
Verbatim Quotes
- “I have had conversations with him in the past, as have many of my colleagues about the challenges he faces in his caucus. And there are many of us who, I think, would welcome the opportunity to have him join the Republican conference, but ultimately that’s a decision that’s up to him,” — Majority Leader John Thune
- “If you didn’t know any difference, you would immediately assume that Fetterman and McCormick are both Republicans, and that Fetterman is an extremely popular Republican senator amongst Republicans,” — Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute
- “Being an independent voice that works with the other side to deliver for Pennsylvanians might put me at odds with the party that I have stayed committed to and have no plans to leave — but I will continue to put the commonwealth and the country first,” — Sen. John Fetterman
What’s Next
Prediction-market data released on Aug. 25, 2026 shows a 7 % probability that Fetterman will leave the Democratic Party before the 2026 midterms and a 13 % chance he will vacate his seat before the end of 2026. His term runs until 2028, and he has not announced whether he will seek re-election. Republican interest in a potential party switch suggests the 2028 Senate race will be closely watched.
