Texas Governor Race Tightens as Abbott Faces Strong Democratic Challenge

Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term in the November 3 election. An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll of 1,167 likely voters conducted August 24-26 shows Abbott ahead of Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa by a single point—46.9 % to 45.8 %—with 7 % undecided. When leaners are added, the gap widens to 51.2 % for Abbott and 48.8 % for Hinojosa. The race, once viewed as a safe Republican hold, is now within single-digit margins.

Newsweek

Abbott first won the governorship in 2014 and has been re-elected in 2018 and 2022. A 2026 victory would make him the longest-serving Texas governor, surpassing Rick Perry. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990, and the state has voted Republican for president in every election since 1980. Democrats cite President Donald Trump’s low national approval—-24 net as of August 28—as a factor that could erode the GOP’s traditional advantage.

Newsweek

• Poll spread: Overton poll (1-point lead); Texas Public Opinion Research poll (7-point lead, 49 %-42 %); July poll (6-point lead, 49 %-43 %); June 19-27 New York Times/Siena College poll (51 %-44 %).

Newsweek

• Demographic splits: Abbott leads white voters by 24 points (58 %-34 %); Hinojosa leads Latino voters by 14 points (55 %-41 %) and Black voters by 59 points (74 %-15 %). She also leads women by 11 points (52 %-41 %) while Abbott leads men by 24 points (58 %-34 %).

Newsweek

• Fundraising: Abbott entered the race with $106 million in the bank, has spent $54.5 million, and holds $67.2 million cash on hand. Hinojosa has $3 million cash and has spent just under $4 million.

Newsweek

Abbott’s campaign has not responded to the poll results.

Newsweek

On June 10, Abbott directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to impose a moratorium on new data-center construction, citing concerns about rural land use, water, noise, and tax-break impacts. The moratorium was later paused for a full audit after stakeholder testimony revealed data gaps.

USA Today

• “Texas is a red state, but this cycle, due in large part to the unpopularity of the Trump administration, is a pink state, with its U.S. Senate race landing in the purple category due to Texas Republican primary voters’ decision to nominate the most flawed major statewide candidate in modern GOP history,” — Mark Jones, Rice University

Newsweek

• “This poll changes the temperature of the governor’s race, but not necessarily the favorite.” — Brandon Rottinghaus, University of Houston

Newsweek

• “Still, this is closer than Republicans would want.” — Calvin Jillson, Southern Methodist University

Newsweek

Polls differ on Abbott’s advantage: the Overton poll shows a 1-point lead, while Texas Public Opinion Research reports a 7-point lead, and earlier July and June surveys range from 5 to 7 points. National approval figures for Trump also vary, with Civiqs reporting a -24 net rating as of August 28, while Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin places it at -19.5. These discrepancies highlight uncertainty about the exact electoral dynamics.

Newsweek

Texans can begin early in-person voting on October 19, with the voter-registration deadline on October 5. The governor’s race will be decided on November 3, alongside a closely watched U.S. Senate contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, which recent polls label a “toss-up.” Campaigns are expected to intensify advertising and voter outreach in the final weeks before Election Day.

Newsweek