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New index warns half humanity may face farm losses

9/7/2026

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Story summary
  • Researchers in Spain created the Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index to flag food-system risk.
  • The index identifies the largest projected losses in tropical zones such as Nigeria, Sudan, Argentina and Australia.
  • Northern Africa also appears severely impacted, according to Hannes Mueller of the Barcelona School.
  • Within 25 years, nearly half of humanity could live where farms produce less food.
  • An emerging El Niño could worsen food shortages for millions in 2027.