Full Breakdown
Climate Change, Food Insecurity and the Growing Risk of Conflict
9/7/2026, 3:23:40 AM
New Research Maps Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline
Researchers Laura Mayoral, Hannes Mueller and colleagues have created the Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI) to map how climate change is reshaping agricultural productivity worldwide. The index shows the heaviest losses in tropical regions and highlights countries where harvests are already below 30-year averages, including Australia, Argentina, Moldova, Nigeria, Romania, the United States and Sudan. The study warns that within the next 25 years nearly half of the global population could live in areas where farms produce less food.
Drivers of Stress in the Global Food System
Beyond climate shocks, wars, trade disruptions, export bans and rising fertilizer costs are amplifying food insecurity. The war in Ukraine repeatedly unsettles grain markets, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed fuel and fertilizer prices higher for farmers everywhere. An El Niño event is expected to worsen shortages for millions next year. Heat waves, floods, declining land productivity and salt-water intrusion further threaten local agriculture, as illustrated by the devastating floods in Nepal in August 2026.
Data & Statistics
- CADI projects that by 2048, roughly 45 % of people could be living in regions with declining farm output.
- Hundreds of millions already experience harvests smaller than three decades ago.
- In Sudan, climate change may increase overall food production, but the shift creates “new winners and losers” within the country, raising the risk of violence.
Official Statements & Responses
He argues that democracies, despite their slower decision-making, provide institutional platforms for negotiation that can prevent conflict. Fahimi adds that climate-induced resource scarcities can push vulnerable individuals toward extremist groups, as seen in Nigeria and Afghanistan, and that weak institutions heighten the danger of unrest.
Verbatim Quotes
- “ South Asia as a warning sign "We do not pay enough attention to the threats to the source of our livelihoods," said Abdullah Fahimi of the think tank German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).” — Abdullah Fahimi
- “The Himalayas and the Hindu Kush mountain ranges supply most of the water for agriculture and drinking water in the region," Fahimi said.” — Abdullah Fahimi
- “When resource scarcities or the impacts of climate change force people to look for other livelihood opportunities, sometimes they end up being hired by terrorist groups,” — Abdullah Fahimi
