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NWS Predicts 90% Chance of Very Strong El Niño

9/9/2026

Summary

Story summary

The U.S. National Weather Service predicts over a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall-winter 2026-27.
The Climate Prediction Center assigns a 69% probability the El Niño will exceed historic intensity since 1950.
A National Weather Service map shows the highest white-Christmas odds in Alaska, northern states and western mountains.
El Niño could push the jet stream south, raising snowfall odds in California, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico.

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Story summary

The U.S. National Weather Service predicts over a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall-winter 2026-27.
The Climate Prediction Center assigns a 69% probability the El Niño will exceed historic intensity since 1950.
A National Weather Service map shows the highest white-Christmas odds in Alaska, northern states and western mountains.
El Niño could push the jet stream south, raising snowfall odds in California, Utah, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico.