Strong El Niño 2026-27 Shapes U.S. Winter Snowfall Outlook

On August 13, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gave a >90 % chance of a “very strong” El Niño developing in fall-winter 2026-27, with a 69 % probability it will exceed the historic intensity of all El Niños since 1950. Sea-surface-temperature anomalies are projected at +3.6 °F in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with surrounding regions 2.5 °F–5.2 °F above average and subsurface anomalies up to +18 °F.

Strong El Niño and the snow map: Which states might see more snow this winter

El Niño, the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, can shift the jet stream and alter storm tracks across North America. Strong events have historically produced wetter conditions in the southern U.S. and milder, drier winters in the north.

Strong El Niño and the snow map: Which states might see more snow this winter

• Probability: >90 % chance of a very strong El Niño; 69 % chance of historic-intensity (CPC, Aug 13).

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• Temperature anomalies: +3.6 °F (eastern equatorial Pacific); +2.5 °F–5.2 °F (adjacent regions); +18 °F subsurface.

Strong El Niño and the snow map: Which states might see more snow this winter

• White-Christmas odds (Dec 25): Highest in Alaska, northern states, and western mountains; low across the South, Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast.

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• Snow-reliable states: Alaska; high-elevation areas of California, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, New Mexico.

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• Precipitation outlook: Above-normal precipitation likely in much of California, the Southwest, and parts of southern Arizona, with >50 % chance of above-average rainfall.

Strong El Niño and the snow map: Which states might see more snow this winter

• Temperature outlook: Above-normal temperatures forecast for the Pacific Northwest through the Northeast, with probabilities >50 % from December through February.

Strong El Niño and the snow map: Which states might see more snow this winter

The NWS Climate Prediction Center echoed the CPC’s probability figures and noted that a formal winter outlook with specific snowfall expectations has not yet been issued.

El Niño arrives: maps show which U.S. states face heavy snowfall

• “El Niño means the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, along the equator, so off the coast of South America, off the coast of Central America, are above normal,” — Tony Fracasso, meteorologist, WPC

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Snowpack in the western mountains acts as a natural reservoir, releasing water in spring and summer and easing drought conditions. Heavy snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, Colorado Rockies, and higher elevations of Arizona and New Mexico could bolster water supplies for agriculture and municipalities. Conversely, above-normal temperatures in the north may reduce snowfall in the Great Lakes region and the Pacific Northwest, affecting recreation and road safety.

El Niño arrives: maps show which U.S. states face heavy snowfall

Experts agree a very strong El Niño raises the likelihood of wetter conditions in the South and warmer temperatures in the North, but the exact snow-to-rain balance remains uncertain.

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NOAA will release its next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion on September 10, offering updated guidance on the El Niño’s influence through the winter. Forecasters will refine regional snowfall probabilities and issue a formal NWS winter outlook. Residents seeking a white Christmas should monitor evolving forecasts, especially in northern and high-elevation locales where odds remain highest.

Newsweek