Full Breakdown
Brazil’s Presidential Race Tightens Amid Supreme Court Turmoil
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Poll Tie Between Flavio Bolsonaro and President Lula
A new AtlasIntel poll commissioned by Bloomberg shows Senator Flavio Bolsonaro edging President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a simulated second-round runoff, with 46.4 % versus 46.2 % respectively. The poll, conducted September 4-9, surveyed 5,000 respondents and carries a margin of error of ±1 percentage point. In the same survey, a first-round scenario projects Lula at 43.0 % and Bolsonaro at 37.4 %.
Background & Context: Supreme Court Crisis and the Banco Master Probe
The poll shift coincides with a dispute inside Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF). Justice André Mendonça lifted judicial secrecy on Federal Police reports that contain private messages between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, former owner of Banco Master SA. Banco Master’s collapse is at the centre of a large-scale fraud investigation that has eroded confidence among political and financial elites.
Justice de Moraes, who oversaw the 2022 conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro for an attempted coup, faces intensified criticism from right-wing circles that have called for his impeachment.
Data & Statistics: Poll Results and Approval Ratings
- AtlasIntel/Bloomberg simulated runoff: Bolsonaro 46.4 % – Lula 46.2 % (±1 pp).
- AtlasIntel first-round projection: Lula 43.0 % – Bolsonaro 37.4 % – Augusto Cury 6.6 % – Renan Santos 6.5 %.
- Previous AtlasIntel poll (late August): Lula 47.1 % – Bolsonaro 42.6 %.
- Reuters/Quaest simulated runoff (Sept 7): Lula 41 % – Bolsonaro 41 % (±2 pp).
- Lula’s approval rating: roughly 44 %, the lowest level recorded by AtlasIntel since January 2024.
Official Statements & Responses
Justice André Mendonça’s decision to authorize the publication of the private messages was presented as a move toward greater openness, though no direct statement from him is included.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll and the Reuters/Quaest poll present divergent runoff figures (46.4 %/46.2 % vs. 41 %/41 %). Different sample sizes (5,000 vs. 2,004) and margins of error contribute to the discrepancy. First-round projections also vary, with AtlasIntel indicating a 43 % lead for Lula, while the Quaest poll showed a 42 %–41 % split. No source provides definitive data on the impact of the Supreme Court crisis on voter behaviour.
Timeline
- September 2: Quaest poll shows Lula 42 % – Bolsonaro 41 %.
- September 4-9: AtlasIntel surveys 5,000 respondents.
- September 7: Reuters reports a tie at 41 % each in a Quaest simulated runoff.
- September 10: Reuters publishes the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg runoff tie (46.4 % vs. 46.2 %).
- September 11: Updated AtlasIntel analysis notes the poll shift and Supreme Court developments.
What’s Next: Election Calendar
If no candidate secures more than 50 % of valid votes in the first round on October 4, the two leading candidates will advance to a runoff on October 25. The Supreme Court dispute and ongoing Federal Police investigations are expected to remain prominent issues in the final weeks of the campaign.
