Full Breakdown
Heavy Rainfall Sweeps Central and Western India as a Low-Pressure System Advances
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Core Event
A low-pressure area that formed over the north-west Bay of Bengal in early September 2026 moved west-northwestward, drawing moisture inland and producing heavy to very heavy showers across large parts of the country. The system generated intense rain between September 12 and September 15, with isolated very heavy rainfall on September 13-14 in Gujarat’s south and Saurashtra-Kutch regions. By September 15 the circulation had shifted into southeast Pakistan, while the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast continued heavy rain for September 16 across Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Punjab and other northern states. Alerts were issued for Gujarat (orange), Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh (yellow), and Delhi-NCR (yellow).
Background & Context
The activity occurs in the later phase of the southwest monsoon, when low-pressure systems can still trigger strong rain spells before the seasonal retreat. The IMD indicated that monsoon withdrawal is likely to begin around September 19, later than the usual September 17 onset in west Rajasthan. As of September 13, the all-India monsoon deficit stood at 15 %.
Timeline
- September 12 – Heavy to very heavy rain across Gujarat, Maharashtra and adjoining areas.
- September 13 – Isolated very heavy rainfall in south Gujarat and Saurashtra-Kutch.
- September 14 – Low-pressure area extending across southeastern Rajasthan, adjoining Gujarat and southwestern Madhya Pradesh.
- September 15 – System over southwest Rajasthan and Kutch moves into southeast Pakistan; circulation reaches up to 7.6 km above mean sea level.
- September 16 – Widespread rain forecast for Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Punjab and other states.
- September 19 – Scheduled start of monsoon withdrawal from parts of west Rajasthan.
Data & Statistics
- Gujarat: orange alert for 115.6–204.4 mm of rain.
- Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh: yellow alert for 64.5–115.5 mm.
- Wind gusts of 30–40 km h?¹ expected; isolated gusts of 40–50 km h?¹ reported for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
- All-India monsoon deficit: 15 % (as of September 13).
- State-level deficits: Meghalaya ? 59 %, Andhra Pradesh ? 43 %, Arunachal Pradesh ? 42 %, Punjab ? 40 %, Bihar ? 35 % (IMD).
Impact
The fast-moving system limits prolonged accumulation, yet short-duration downpours cause water-logging in low-lying areas, disrupt road traffic and create commuter difficulties, especially in Mumbai and other urban centres. The rainfall adds pressure to agricultural sowing and crop yields in deficit-affected states such as Punjab, Haryana and the southern peninsula.
Official Statements & Responses
The IMD described the low-pressure area as a “natural rain-maker” that lifts moisture-laden air, leading to cloud formation and precipitation. It emphasized that the upcoming withdrawal on September 19 marks the start of the monsoon retreat rather than an immediate cessation of rain.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
All consulted sources present a consistent picture of the system’s trajectory, intensity and the associated alerts. No substantive discrepancies were identified regarding the timing of rainfall or the magnitude of the monsoon deficit.
What’s Next
The IMD expects scattered to widespread showers across eastern, central and southern India through late September, even as withdrawal proceeds from west Rajasthan around September 19. Forecasts include isolated showers in West Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh through September 18, and continued rain in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and the Andaman-Nicobar Islands up to September 20. Monitoring of water-logging and agricultural impacts will remain a priority as the season transitions toward its final phase.