Full Breakdown
Peltola Holds Lead Over Sullivan in Latest Alaska Senate Poll
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: AARP Survey Shows Democrat Ahead in Ranked-Choice Race
An AARP-commissioned poll conducted Sept. 8-11 among 800 likely Alaska voters found former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola at 46 % and incumbent Rep. Dan Sullivan at 41 % in the initial round. Simulating Alaska’s ranked-choice process projects Peltola at 53 % versus Sullivan’s 47 %. Margin of error ± 3.5 pts. “Fifty-plus voters are nearly two-thirds of the electorate in Alaska, so [they’re] already a decisive factor,” — Matt Hogan. “Affordability is the number one issue,” — Fabrizio Ward.
Background & Context
Alaska’s Senate race uses a nonpartisan top-four primary followed by ranked-choice voting. The four candidates are Peltola (Democrat), Sullivan (Republican), independent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (4 %), and Republican Gerald Heikes (3 %). Seven percent of respondents remain undecided. The state has voted for President Donald Trump by double-digit margins in recent elections, making this seat a potential Democratic pickup.
Data & Statistics
- Initial round: Peltola 46 % | Sullivan 41 % | Sullivan Jr. 4 % | Heikes 3 % | Undecided 7 %
- Projected final round: Peltola 53 % | Sullivan 47 %
- Demographic splits: Peltola leads independents 58 %-26 % and voters 18-49 by 26 points; Sullivan leads among voters 50+ and men.
- Voter motivation: 87 % of Alaskans 50+ describe themselves as “extremely” motivated, versus 62 % of those under 50.
Why It Matters
Control of the U.S. Senate hinges on a handful of competitive races; Alaska is one of the few where Democrats see a realistic path to flipping a Republican seat. The poll highlights the importance of independent voters and the impact of ranked-choice voting, which rewards broader cross-partisan appeal. Affordability concerns dominate voter sentiment, with higher costs for gas, groceries and health care eroding support for the incumbent.
Official Statements & Responses
- Sullivan’s campaign was not quoted; Newsweek received no comment.
- Matt Hogan, Impact Research, emphasized older voters’ influence, noting the quote above.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
A June New York Times/Siena College poll showed a narrow two-point lead for Sullivan, while a recent Alaska Survey Research poll placed Peltola ahead by roughly one point in the final round. Data for Progress mirrored the AARP projection (53 %-47 %). These differences underscore polling challenges in Alaska’s dispersed electorate.
Prediction-market data as of Sept. 17 indicated a 68 % implied probability of a Peltola victory on Kalshi and 67 % on Polymarket.
