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El Niño Drives India’s Monsoon 15% Below Average

By Drooid · Sep 18, 2026, 8:02 AM UTC · How we work

Summary

India Monsoon Drought

India’s monsoon is on track for its driest season in 17 years, with rainfall 15% below average.
The India Meteorological Department says a strengthening El Niño is curbing June-September rainfall.
Werner projects the national rainfall deficit will stay between 13% and 16%.
Yuvika Singhal of QuantEco estimates each 1-percentage-point shortfall raises food inflation by about 25 basis points.
The government allowed duty-free sugar imports and sold subsidised onions to ease food-price pressures.

Summary

Delhi Rainfall Surge

Delhi recorded an 8% rainfall surplus while nearby districts faced deficits up to 69%.
Ten low-pressure systems, including four depressions, crossed India this monsoon, above the usual under-nine.
Sixteen westerly disturbances from June-August, eight in August, intensified Delhi’s showers as the jet stream lagged.
Monsoon and westerly disturbances caused heavy rains on July 8-9, July 29, Aug 7-8 and Aug 25, closing 290 roads in Himachal and Uttarakhand.

Summary

El Niño Strengthens

El Niño is projected to reach a record-strength Nino 3.4 anomaly of about +3.6 °C for Sep-Nov 2026.
NOAA's September 10 assessment gives >90% chance of a very strong El Niño in autumn-winter 2026-27.
WMO forecasts an almost 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027.
Karnataka’s M S Divakara warns of severe drought in 2027 if El Niño continues past Feb-Mar.
WMO has urged national meteorological and hydrological services to boost early-warning and preparedness measures.

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India Monsoon Drought

India’s monsoon is on track for its driest season in 17 years, with rainfall 15% below average.
The India Meteorological Department says a strengthening El Niño is curbing June-September rainfall.
Werner projects the national rainfall deficit will stay between 13% and 16%.
Yuvika Singhal of QuantEco estimates each 1-percentage-point shortfall raises food inflation by about 25 basis points.
The government allowed duty-free sugar imports and sold subsidised onions to ease food-price pressures.

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