Full Breakdown
India’s Monsoon Faces 17-Year Low Amid Strengthening El Niño
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Core Event: Record-Low Rainfall Forecast
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports cumulative June-September rainfall is 15 % below the long-term average. If the shortfall persists, the season will be the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18 % below normal. The IMD had projected a 10 % shortfall in May, but recent observations suggest a larger deficit.
Background: A Powerful El Niño
Sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region are about 3 °C above average, within 0.02 °C of the benchmark for the strongest El Niño on record, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The WMO’s seasonal models give an almost 100 % likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. NOAA assessed on September 10 a more than 90 % chance of a very strong El Niño during the 2026-27 autumn-winter.
Forecasts and Expected Deficit
- Christian Werner, managing director of Global Weather Climate Analytics, estimates a national deficit of 13 %–16 % even if a tropical cyclone develops in the Bay of Bengal in late September.
- The CRUCIAL platform at Lancaster University, founded by planetary scientist Mark Roulston, assigns a 68 % probability that rainfall will end 10 %–20 % below normal.
- A 2024 Climate Dynamics study found Bay of Bengal depressions rise in El Niño years, averaging 3.9 versus 2.4 in neutral years. This year, 10 low-pressure systems have been recorded, including four depressions.
Regional Variation: Delhi’s Unexpected Surplus
As of September 16, Delhi recorded a seasonal rainfall surplus of 8 %, while neighboring Haryana showed a 23 % deficit and the broader northwest logged a 10 % shortfall. Delhi’s heaviest rain fell on July 8-9, July 29, August 7-8, and August 25, each coinciding with combined low-pressure and westerly disturbance activity. Adjacent districts reported deficits ranging from -32 % to -69 %.
Agricultural and Food-Price Implications
India’s agriculture depends on monsoon rains for crops such as rice, sugarcane and cotton. Economist Yuvika Singhal notes that each 1 percentage-point shortfall typically lifts food inflation by about 25 basis points. Food inflation rose for a seventh month, reaching 5.95 % in August, the highest this year. The government responded by allowing duty-free sugar imports and selling onions at subsidised prices in several states.
Official Statements & Preparedness
- Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the IMD, explained that El Niño induces subsidence over south India, suppressing low-pressure formation in the central Bay and redirecting systems northward, which helped Delhi but left much of north-west India drier.
- The WMO has urged national meteorological and hydrological services to strengthen early-warning systems as the El Niño intensifies.
- M S Divakara, director of the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre, warned that continued El Niño conditions could trigger a severe drought in Karnataka in 2027, with 30 of 31 districts already rainfall-deficient.
Timeline of Key Developments
- May 2026 – IMD forecasts a 10 % monsoon shortfall.
- July-August 2026 – Ten low-pressure systems, including four depressions, traverse India.
- July 2 2026 – Monsoon onset over Delhi during an active westerly disturbance spell.
- July 8-9, July 29, August 7-8, August 25 2026 – Heavy rain events in Delhi linked to combined system activity.
- September 10 2026 – NOAA issues a >90 % probability of a very strong El Niño.
- September 16 2026 – Delhi records an 8 % surplus; surrounding regions report significant deficits.
- Late September 2026 – Potential Bay of Bengal cyclone may bring localized relief but is unlikely to alter the national deficit.