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Story summary
- Rep. James Talarico (D) leads the Texas Senate race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
- Prediction markets give Talarico roughly 60% chance to win and Paxton about 40%.
- A Texas Pulse poll (Sept 8-11) shows Talarico ahead 49%-43%, a six-point lead beyond the 4.3% margin.
- If elected, Talarico would be the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate seat since 1988.