Full Breakdown
Tight Texas Senate Race Gains Momentum
By Drooid · · How we work
Background & Context
Democratic State Representative James Talarico is challenging incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat in a state that has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980. Paxton, who defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff, has aligned himself with former President Donald Trump, who endorsed his campaign. Paxton’s record includes a 2023 impeachment and acquittal, a securities-fraud case resolved in 2024, and multiple allegations of bribery, corruption, and an extramarital affair, all of which he has denied. Talarico presents himself as a faith-driven, common-sense Democrat focused on affordability and economic issues.
Polling and Market Forecasts
Several prediction markets now view the contest as competitive. Kalshi assigns Talarico a 59 % chance of winning versus 41 % for Paxton, while Polymarket lists odds of roughly 60 % to 41 %. Fox News’ Power Rankings and the Cook Political Report have both shifted their ratings from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up.” Nate Silver’s model, updated on August 25, gave Talarico about a 70 % chance and Paxton about 30 %, citing Paxton’s “laundry list of scandals” and Talarico’s strong fundraising. RealClearPolling’s aggregation shows Talarico at 47.6 % and Paxton at 45 %. A Texas Pulse poll conducted in early September found Talarico leading 49 % to 43 % among likely voters, with a 4.3-point margin of error. The same poll reported a 38 %–55 % negative favorability for Paxton and a 50 %–39 % positive rating for Talarico. Independent voters now favor Talarico by 40 % points, up from a 23-point gap in July.
Official Statements & Responses
Paxton’s campaign has reiterated his denial of wrongdoing in the various legal matters surrounding him. Talarico’s campaign emphasizes his fundraising advantage and positions his platform around economic concerns for Texas families. Trump’s endorsement of Paxton underscores the incumbent’s alignment with national Republican leadership.
Implications
If Talarico wins, he would become the first Democrat since 1988 to capture a Texas Senate seat, signaling a potential shift in the state’s long-standing Republican dominance. The increasingly competitive race reflects broader national attention on Texas as a possible battleground in the upcoming midterm elections.