Full Breakdown
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic: Diverging Trends Amid U.S. Escort Operations and Iranian Blockade
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Core Event – Recent Shipping Activity Shows Mixed Signals
Preliminary data released on Sept 23 indicated that three commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, well below the ten-day moving average of roughly 15 ships. The count followed a weekend total of 12 vessels, compared with 35 the previous week. At the same time, U.S. Central Command officials reported that oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments over the past two weeks reached the highest level in six months.
Background & Context
The strait was effectively closed on Feb 28 after U.S. and Israeli strikes, prompting a sharp disruption to global energy flows. The United States responded with naval escorts and mine-clearance to keep the waterway open for allied shipments while enforcing a blockade that has halted Iranian crude exports. Regional partners have moved more than 1 billion barrels of crude through the strait in recent months.
Data & Statistics
- Three vessels (including one Panamax tanker) were recorded on Sept 23; the ten-day moving average is about 15.
- Weekend traffic fell to 12 vessels, down from 35 the week before.
- Kpler data for the week to Sept 13 showed 13 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) exiting the strait.
- U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that the market still depends on roughly 10 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products transiting the strait.
- Saudi Arabia has been exporting about 2.9 million barrels per day via Hormuz, while Iranian crude loadings dropped to roughly 210,000 bpd in August.
- U.S. forces have directed 109 commercial vessels to reroute as part of compliance with the blockade, according to Central Command statements on Sept 20.
Official Statements & Responses
Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, said that mine-clearance and escort missions have cleared the primary lanes and that “momentum is building.” He added that the recent surge in oil, cargo, and LNG volumes reflects the effectiveness of the effort.
President Donald Trump warned that the United States could “annihilate Iran” if a deal is not reached, while also suggesting a diplomatic agreement could be imminent at the United Nations.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared that the strait will stay closed until the United States fulfills its commitments under the June interim peace agreement.
Criticism & Opposition
Speaker Ghalibaf’s statement represents formal Iranian opposition to the U.S. escort and blockade strategy, arguing that the closure is a response to unmet American obligations. Iran also maintains that it has closed the strait, a claim that contrasts with U.S. assertions of an open waterway.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ sharply on the state of traffic. U.S. military and allied officials cite a six-month high in oil and LNG shipments, while commercial tracking data from Kpler and other firms show a steep decline in vessel counts. Both sets of figures acknowledge that many ships may switch off Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders, creating uncertainty about the true volume of traffic.