Full Breakdown
Democrats Gain Ground in Texas Senate and Governor Races Ahead of 2026 Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Poll Snapshot
Recent statewide surveys show Democratic candidates James Talarico for U.S. Senate and Gina Hinojosa for governor leading or closely trailing their Republican opponents. The Marist Poll (1,139 voters, Sept. 17-20) gave Talarico 50 % to Paxton’s 44 % and Hinojosa 49 % to Abbott’s 46 %. NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo (625 respondents, Sept. 8-10) recorded Talarico at 46 % vs. Paxton 43 %, while Abbott led Hinojosa 48 %-41 %. All three surveys fall within their 4-5-point margins of error.
Background & Context
Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994, and Republicans have held the governorship for three decades. Campaign themes have shifted toward affordability, data-center development, and immigration. Abbott opposes new data-center projects in rural areas; Hinojosa’s ads criticize his past acceptance of related money. Talarico proposes a $15 federal minimum wage and higher taxes on billionaires, while Paxton offers tax deductions for medical expenses and first-time homebuyers.
Data & Statistics
| Race | Poll Source | Dem. % | Rep. % | MoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | Marist (Sept. 17-20) | 50 | 44 | ±4.4 pp |
| U.S. Senate | NBC 5 (Sept. 8-10) | 46 | 43 | ±4 pp |
| Governor | Marist (Sept. 17-20) | 49 | 46 | ±4.4 pp |
| Governor | NBC 5 (Sept. 8-10) | 41 | 48 | ±4 pp |
| Governor | Texas Southern Univ. (Sept. 15-19) | 45 | 49 | ±2.31 pp |
A private Quorum Report poll of 600 likely voters in Senate District 9 (Sept. 10-15) showed Talarico at 52 % versus Paxton’s 41 %.
Official Statements & Responses
- Gina Hinojosa highlighted Latino voters, noting Beto O’Rourke’s 64 % Latino share in 2018.
- James Talarico said “the top 1 % has put the American dream behind a paywall.”
- Ken Paxton promoted his “Protecting the Texas Promise” plan with medical-expense and home-buyer deductions.
- Greg Abbott reiterated opposition to new data-center projects and pledged to block related infrastructure costs.
On-the-Ground Reports
Talarico hosted a food drive in Oak Cliff and warned that “the top 1 % has put the American dream behind a paywall” at an Arlington rally. Hinojosa cited the 2018 Latino vote benchmark at a UnidosUS conference. NBC 5 polling indicates Talarico leads Latino voters by 18 points (54 %-36 %) and Hinojosa by 13 points (52 %-39 %).
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on Democratic leads: Marist shows a 6-point Senate advantage for Talarico, NBC 5 only a 3-point edge. Gubernatorial numbers swing from a 3-point Democratic lead (Marist) to a 7-point Republican lead (NBC 5). Turnout projections and the impact of third-party or undecided voters (4-8 % across surveys) remain uncertain.
What’s Next
Texans will vote on Nov. 3, 2026. If Abbott wins, he would become the longest-serving governor in state history. The Senate race could affect the narrow partisan balance in the U.S. Senate. Campaign financing intensifies, with MAGA Inc. contributing $5 million to Paxton and Republican super PACs running trans-rights ads targeting Talarico.