Full Breakdown
Danish Intelligence Warns of Growing Russian Threat to NATO
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Assessment: Possible Limited Russian Attack on NATO Members
Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) released a threat assessment indicating a low but growing risk that Russia could carry out a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries that border Russia. The agency says the risk could materialise in the coming months, even while the war in Ukraine continues. The assessment also foresees an increase in the frequency and severity of Russian hybrid attacks—cyber-operations, sabotage and drone strikes—targeting infrastructure that supports Ukraine.
Background & Context
Since the war began, European security services have warned that Moscow is expanding its use of “hybrid warfare” to pressure the West. Recent incidents include a fire at a Starlink ground station in Poland, a foiled drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany, and a Russian frigate firing warning flares at a Danish helicopter on September 14, 2026. DDIS views these as part of a broader strategy to test NATO cohesion.
Possible Scenarios for a Limited Attack
DDIS outlines three principal forms a limited strike could take:
- Targeted long-range strikes on infrastructure that supplies Ukraine, such as power lines or logistics hubs.
- False-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones or other weapons to create the appearance of a Ukrainian attack on a NATO state.
- Deployment of a small number of troops without national insignia into a border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking minorities.
Official Statements & Responses
The DDIS report stresses that there are no current indications of an imminent full-scale invasion, but it cannot be ruled out; any such invasion would need at least six months of preparation. Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of DDIS, said the agency can no longer dismiss the possibility of a limited attack, emphasizing that “the aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO.” Defence Minister Jeppe Bruus described the situation as serious and highlighted the need for openness about the threat. Chief of Defence Michael Hyldgaard affirmed that the Danish armed forces are adapting to the assessment and remain ready to respond.
Criticism & Opposition
Poland’s deputy prime minister, Krzysztof Gawkowski, linked the recent Starlink fire to Russia’s new doctrine, while Robert Fico, prime minister of Slovakia, expressed doubt about NATO’s collective defence commitment, saying he does not want Slovakia drawn into a conflict “because of some article 5.” These remarks illustrate divergent views among NATO members.
Timeline
- February 4, 2026 – Brigadier General Christoph Huber attends a ceremony in Kaunas, Lithuania, marking Germany’s expanded military commitment to the Baltic state.
- September 14, 2026 – A Russian frigate fires flares at a Danish military helicopter near Gedser, described by DDIS as the most serious recent incident.
- September 24, 2026 – DDIS publishes its latest threat assessment, reiterating the low-but-growing risk of a limited Russian attack and the expected intensification of hybrid warfare.
Data & Statistics
- The DDIS characterises the risk of a limited attack as “low but growing.”
- Hybrid attacks are expected to become more frequent and to have greater consequences for targeted NATO states.
- An outright invasion remains “highly unlikely,” yet the agency notes it cannot be ruled out.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The purpose would be to redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within NATO, should the alliance fail to agree on a collective response.” — DDIS
- “The aim is not to take over the country, but to divide NATO,” — Thomas Ahrenkiel, FE chief