Full Breakdown
Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Polls Ahead of Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
Recent Poll Results
A Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released in early September shows Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico with 49 % support versus Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 44 %, and 3 % undecided. The same poll notes a 5-point lead for Talarico overall and a double-digit advantage among independent voters (58 % to 26 %).
A separate Marist poll conducted in mid-September of 1,139 registered Texas voters reported Talarico at 50 % and Paxton at 44 %, with 4 % undecided and 2 % choosing another candidate. The Marist survey carries a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Background and Race Dynamics
Both polls arrive as the Cook Political Report has reclassified the Senate contest from “likely Republican” to a “toss-up.” The shift follows heightened attention on issues such as data-center development and cost-of-living concerns. Paxton, who has faced impeachment proceedings on corruption charges before being acquitted, remains favored among older and white voters, while Talarico leads younger, Latino, Black, college-educated, and gender-balanced demographics.
Republican groups, including the Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas affiliate tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have begun injecting additional money into the race, underscoring its importance for GOP efforts to retain Senate control.
Voter Demographics and Issue Preferences
Independent voters strongly back Talarico (55 % to Paxton’s 26 %). Among issue priorities, 49 % of respondents say Talarico is better positioned to address the cost of living, compared with 42 % for Paxton. On data-center and artificial-intelligence policy, Talarico leads 45 % to 40 %.
Potential Impact on Senate Control
If the race ultimately favors Talarico, it would represent a rare Democratic pickup in a traditionally Republican stronghold and could narrow the Republican majority in the U.S. Senate. Conversely, a Paxton victory would preserve GOP control of both the Texas Senate seat and the broader Senate balance, reinforcing the party’s legislative agenda heading into the 2026 midterms.