Story perspectives

Poll Shows Democrat Talarico Leading Ken Paxton 49-44

By Drooid · Sep 29, 2026, 3:14 PM UTC · How we work

Center

Talarico Leads Independents

Texas Public Opinion Research released a poll on Sept. 28, 2026 showing Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race.
The survey indicates Talarico leads independents and minority voters, while Paxton leads white and older voters, with Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 44%.
Survey covered over 1,000 Texas voters Sept. 19-22, 2026, with a ±3.6 % margin.
U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton while Senator Thom Tillis criticized him.

Left

Accountability Failure

A Texas poll released on Sept. 28, 2026 showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race.
The coverage frames Paxton’s refusal to debate Talarico as a failure of accountability to Texas voters.
Paxton’s campaign declined the CNN invitation and has not accepted a Fox News debate request.
University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus said Paxton’s avoidance lets Republicans attack Talarico without answering scandal questions.

History

Historical Context

In November 1994, Republican George W. Bush defeated incumbent Democrat Ann Richards, winning 188 of Texas’s 254 counties and marking the first gubernatorial loss for a Texas incumbent since Reconstruction. That election coincided with Republicans adding two seats in the state House and flipping two U.S. House seats, cementing a GOP surge that later helped Kay Bailey Hutchison win a Senate seat and frames today’s Talarico-Paxton contest.

1 of 3

Talarico Leads Independents

Texas Public Opinion Research released a poll on Sept. 28, 2026 showing Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race.
The survey indicates Talarico leads independents and minority voters, while Paxton leads white and older voters, with Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 44%.
Survey covered over 1,000 Texas voters Sept. 19-22, 2026, with a ±3.6 % margin.
U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton while Senator Thom Tillis criticized him.

1 / 3