Full Breakdown
Texas Democrats Close In on Historic Wins in Midterm Races
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Contests: Senate and Governor Races Tighten
Democratic challenger James Talarico, a state representative, leads incumbent Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, in a recent poll for the U.S. Senate seat. At the same time, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, a state representative, is narrowing the gap against incumbent Greg Abbott, the governor. Both contests are shaping up as the most competitive statewide races in Texas in decades.
Background & Context
Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1993, a 32-year streak. The 2026 midterms occur amid voter concerns over cost-of-living issues, data-center backlash, and a “rigged” political narrative, themes highlighted by Talarico and Hinojosa.
Data & Statistics
| Metric | Senate Race | Governor Race |
|---|---|---|
| Lead in latest Texas Public Opinion Research survey | Talarico 49 % – Paxton 44 % | Hinojosa trailing by a few points |
| Advantage among independents (Senate) | 32-point lead for Talarico | — |
| Demographic leads (Senate) | Talarico ahead among Black, Latino, college-educated, and voters < 55; Paxton ahead among white voters > 55 | Hinojosa trails among Hispanic men |
| Campaign cash on hand (Governor) | Abbott: $67 million – Hinojosa: $3 million | — |
| Voter-registration deadline | Early October for midterm participation | — |
The survey sampled more than 1,000 likely voters with a ±3.6 point margin of error. Earlier August polling gave Talarico a 48 %–42 % lead; September polls from Emerson College and the Barbara Jordan Center showed a tighter 47 %–45 % split.
Official Statements & Responses
- James Talarico frames his campaign as a fight against “billionaire mega-donors and puppet politicians,” positioning himself as an underdog.
- Greg Abbott defended his push for AI and data-center development, then acknowledged backlash, stating, “They basically dug their own grave.”
Criticism & Opposition
- Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) called former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton a “colossal mistake,” suggesting it could hurt Republican prospects.
- Brandon Rottinghaus, political-science professor at the University of Houston, described Paxton’s refusal to debate as “wise,” noting it lets Republicans continue attacking Talarico without answering scandal-related questions.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
September polls show divergent margins: the Texas Public Opinion Research survey indicates a five-point lead for Talarico, while Emerson College and the Barbara Jordan Center each report a two-point advantage. The sources do not provide a unified view of voter sentiment among older white voters, leaving a gap in understanding the full electoral landscape.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I’ll go into the lion’s den, because I know what I believe,” — Democrat James Talarico, led Texas Attorney General Paxton 49% to 44%
- “They basically dug their own grave,” — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
What’s Next
Voters must update their registration by early October to participate in the November midterm election. Both Senate and governor races will be decided on Election Day, with national parties watching closely for any breakthrough that could end the decades-long Republican hold on statewide Texas offices.