Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” Faces a Crucial Test in Brazil’s Election

Brazil’s presidential election took place on Sunday, with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, seeking a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Polling after the first round shows Lula ahead, while the two candidates are statistically tied for a likely runoff on October 25. The contest is viewed as the most consequential test yet of President Donald Trump’s effort to reshape Latin America under what analysts have dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine.”

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Since taking office, the Trump administration has pursued measures aimed at pressuring Brazil’s government and bolstering right-leaning allies. In July 2025 the United States imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian goods, citing a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro, and later reduced tariffs on many food products amid domestic price concerns. A Section 301 investigation led to a 25 percent tariff on most Brazilian imports in July 2025.

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The State Department designated the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as foreign terrorist groups, a move the Bolsonaro camp had lobbied for. In August, Washington revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, after Brazil denied visas to two senior U.S. officials planning to discuss “election integrity.”

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Trump’s regional strategy includes the “Shield of the Americas” security coalition launched in March, which currently excludes Brazil, Mexico and Colombia because their leftist presidents have clashed with Washington over tariffs and sovereignty.

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• Brazil’s population: 214 million.

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• Post-tariff poll (Datafolha): Lula 48 % vs Flávio 43 % after the July 2025 tariff increase.

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• U.S. runs a trade surplus with Brazil and seeks access to Brazil’s rare-earth, graphite, nickel and niobium deposits.

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During a White House event on September 2, President Trump asserted that “they’re all going right,” emphasizing his support for right-leaning candidates across the hemisphere.

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President Lula’s administration accused the United States of meddling after Brazil denied visas to two State Department officials, framing the action as interference in Brazil’s electoral process.

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U.S. officials have defended the tariff and terrorist designations as measures against cartels and unfair trade practices, stressing that the actions are unrelated to Brazil’s internal politics.

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Benjamin Gedan, a Latin America expert at Johns Hopkins University, argued that “Trump is unwilling, or perhaps simply incapable, of getting along with progressive leaders in the region,” highlighting the diplomatic gap created by Brazil’s exclusion from the Shield coalition.

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• “Trump's tariffs, sanctions and terror designations have been a political and electoral gift to Lula," Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, told Newsweek.” — Michael Shifter

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• “Like his dad, the 'Trump of the Tropics,' Flávio would bend over backwards to demonstrate his loyalty to Trump and to Trump's global far-right alliance, including on culture-war issues," Gedan said.” — Benjamin Gedan

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Analysts differ on the electoral impact of U.S. pressure. Navia contends that the economic strain from tariffs may offset any nationalist boost for the incumbent, indicating that the policies’ net effect remains uncertain.

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If no candidate secures a majority on election day, the contest will move to the October 25 runoff. Observers expect the White House to increase its involvement, with Sabatini predicting that Trump “will go hard” in the runoff phase. The outcome will determine whether Brazil joins the Shield of the Americas and aligns more closely with Trump’s hemispheric agenda, or remains a prominent holdout under Lula’s multi-vector foreign policy.

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