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Polls Show Trump at 31% Approval, Lowest of Term

By Drooid · Oct 6, 2026, 12:11 AM UTC · How we work

Summary

Donald Trump Approval Plummets

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a 39% approval rating in a CBS/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2.
An AP-NORC poll records Trump’s approval at 31%, the lowest level of either term.
Civiqs’ rolling tracker finds Trump underwater in 39 states and all major battlegrounds one month before the midterms.
Net approval is negative in every state, with Hawaii at –58 and Wyoming at +18, its strongest.

Summary

Researchers Predict Trump Approval

Researchers apply LASSO regression to forecast President Donald Trump's approval from demographics and voting behavior.
The model weights census, election and survey data to reflect each state electorate.
Data include YouGov/The Economist, BLS, Cooperative Election Study, US Census, CPS, FiftyPlusOne, Pew.
Democrats rank health care (14%) and climate change (9%) versus Republicans' immigration (11%) and taxes (9%).
YouGov surveys about 1,500 weekly panelists, weighting for gender, age, race, education, voting behavior.

History

Historical Context

The Watergate scandal, ending with President Richard Nixon’s resignation in August 1974, plunged his Gallup approval to a historic 24% low in June 1973. Nixon’s downfall was amplified by investigative reporting from The Washington Post, which published over 400 articles and triggered 20,000-plus subpoenas. Today, Trump’s approval sits near 31% in AP-NORC polls, with CBS/YouGov data showing 39% nationwide, mirroring Nixon’s steep decline amid scandal-driven distrust. Both episodes illustrate how rapid polling drops can reshape campaign strategies, prompting analysts to deploy models like LASSO regression to forecast voter sentiment.

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Donald Trump Approval Plummets

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a 39% approval rating in a CBS/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2.
An AP-NORC poll records Trump’s approval at 31%, the lowest level of either term.
Civiqs’ rolling tracker finds Trump underwater in 39 states and all major battlegrounds one month before the midterms.
Net approval is negative in every state, with Hawaii at –58 and Wyoming at +18, its strongest.

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