Full Breakdown
Trump’s Low Approval in States Tied to New Economic Investments Raises Midterm Stakes
By Drooid · · How we work
Core Event: Approval Ratings Lag Behind Investment Announcements
President Donald Trump’s administration announced major economic investments—a $200 billion South-Korea package, a $15 billion steel plant in Iowa, a $22.3 billion combined-cycle gas plant in Texas, and nuclear projects in Ohio, Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky. Civiqs’ rolling online tracker, with 134,051 responses from registered voters between January 20 2025 and October 3 2026, shows Trump’s net approval is negative in every state slated for these projects. The gap between promised benefits and personal approval has become a focal point for Republican campaigns ahead of the November 3 midterms.
Background & Context: Investment Packages Announced
- South Korea strategic investment: $200 billion overall, including a proposed LNG project in Alaska (later left uncertain).
- Iowa steel plant: $15 billion Mesabi Metallics project expected to create 1,750 permanent jobs.
- Texas power plant: $22.3 billion Project Star facility intended to power AI data centers.
- Nuclear projects: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick cited a $120 billion plan for eight large nuclear plants, naming Ohio, Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky as potential sites.
Data & Statistics: State-by-State Approval Gaps
- Alaska – 54 % disapprove, 39 % approve (net -15).
- Iowa – 55 % disapprove, 36 % approve (net -19).
- Minnesota – 64 % disapprove, 28 % approve (net -35).
- Texas – 57 % disapprove, 36 % approve (net -21).
- Ohio – 55 % disapprove, 38 % approve (net -18).
- Tennessee – 47 % disapprove, 45 % approve (net -2).
Nationally, The Economist’s YouGov tracker (updated September 29 2026) recorded a net approval of -26, with 35 % approving and 61 % disapproving. Newsweek’s Civiqs snapshot for the same period reported 34 % approval and 60 % disapproval.
Official Statements & Responses
- President Trump defended the South-Korea announcement, saying he had not “jumped the gun” and warned that if Seoul withdrew it “just [would] charge them more” on tariffs.
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick highlighted the nuclear investment plan, naming the states above as potential sites.
- White House spokesperson Davis Ingle asserted that the “ultimate poll” was the November 5 2024 election, arguing the 80 million-voter victory provides a mandate for the agenda.
Criticism & Opposition
VoteHub data-science head Zachary Donnini warned that Republican voters are increasingly hard to reach, noting, “It’s really hard to get Republicans to answer polls right now.” He added that the lack of enthusiasm could give Democrats a “20 or 25 % chance” of a devastating midterm outcome for the GOP.
Why It Matters / Impact
Negative presidential approval in states receiving high-profile investments may force Republican Senate and House candidates to distance themselves from Trump or double-down on his economic narrative despite personal unpopularity. The gaps are especially pronounced in battlegrounds such as Ohio, where net ratings have shifted from positive early in Trump’s term to deep negatives now.
What’s Next
Early voting has begun in several key states, and the November 3 midterms will test whether the administration’s investment promises can offset Trump’s personal disapproval. Polling averages suggest Democrats hold a lead in congressional contests, but the final outcome will hinge on turnout in the states where Trump’s approval is most underwater.