Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Tightens as Democrat James Talarico Holds Lead Over Ken Paxton
By Drooid · · How we work
Race Overview
The 2026 Texas Senate contest pits state Representative James Talarico (Democratic nominee) against Attorney General Ken Paxton (Republican). The seat, held by retiring Senator John Cornyn since 1995, has not been won by a Democrat since 1988. President Donald Trump has campaigned in Texas, urging voters to reject Talarico and warning “we’ll never forgive you” if the seat flips blue. Early-voting begins in October, with Election Day set for November 3.
Polls and Prediction-Market Odds
Multiple surveys show Talarico ahead by three to six points. A Trafalgar poll conducted October 6-8 recorded 47.1 % for Talarico versus 43.6 % for Paxton. Earlier polls—Times-Siena (Sept. 21-30), YouGov (Sept. 28-Oct. 5), and UMass-Lowell (Sept. 18-28)—all placed Talarico 5-6 points ahead, with margins of error ranging from ±3.0 to ±4.6 percentage points. Prediction-market prices on October 11 listed Talarico at 63 % (Kalshi) and 64 % (Polymarket) versus 37 % for Paxton, indicating traders view the Democrat as the favorite despite a brief dip in odds during his flu-related absence.
Candidate Absence and Republican Criticism
Trump amplified the attacks, labeling Talarico a “vegan” who supports sanctuary cities and opposes the border wall. Talarico rebuffed the narrative, emphasizing his illness and challenging Paxton to a debate.
Official Statements & Responses
Trump’s San Antonio rally urged supporters to back Paxton and warned against a Democratic flip. Paxton, in a recent post, warned that a Talarico victory would raise taxes and fund a “radical agenda.” Talarico, speaking to NBC Dallas-Fort Worth, denied any stress-related treatment, confirming he consulted a primary-care physician and remained at home to avoid exposing others to illness. He also mocked Paxton’s “proof of life” demands, demanding “proof of spine” from his opponent.
Verbatim Quotes
- “President Trump just said Ken Paxton should debate,” — State Representative James Talarico, the president
- “James Talarico is bought and paid for by the Democratic Socialists,” — Ken Paxton, warning against letting Talarico flip outgoing Senator John Cornyn's seat blue
