Full Breakdown
Surge in Iranian Maritime Attacks Threatens Hormuz Oil Flows
By Drooid · · How we work
Background to the Hormuz Conflict
The war that began on February 28 2026 between Iran, the United States and Israel led Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz and impose a navigation-prohibited zone. On May 30 Tehran required vessels to obtain prior IRGC Navy authorization, warning that unauthorized transit would be deemed a “security threat.” Since July 12 Iran announced another closure after renewed U.S. attacks on July 8. Despite a June memorandum of understanding meant to restore freedom of navigation, sporadic attacks have continued, and the waterway remains a focal point of regional tension.
Attack Data and Shipping Trends
- October 11: UKMTO recorded four tankers struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the strait.
- October 12–13: Iranian sources reported at least six vessels hit on October 13, bringing the total of attacks in the first 12 days of October to 18 commercial ships.
- Weekly traffic: Windward data showed 31 ships crossed the strait daily in the final week of September, far below the 138 daily crossings before the war. Satellite imagery of loading buoys indicated a drop from six buoys in use to an average of four during the week to October 12.
- Oil volumes: Vitol chief Russell Hardy estimated 12 million barrels of crude and 2 million barrels of fuels per day were exiting Hormuz in early October; Shell’s CEO Wael Sawan said overall Middle-East oil flows had reached about 80 percent of pre-conflict levels.
- Shuttle system impact: Ship-to-ship transfers remain crucial. Analysts note that the southern corridor via Fujairah and Yanbu now carries 5–5.5 million barrels daily, while overall traffic through Hormuz has fallen 40 percent and total maritime traffic 27 percent.
Official Iranian and Regional Statements
- The IRGC Navy was “counting down” for such encounters.
- Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, claimed the U.S. Central Command, assisted by the United Arab Emirates, was running a “U.S.–UAE oil shuttle” that transports crude via small boats to larger tankers, and that Iranian forces strike five-six of these vessels nightly.
- Iranian Navy officials reported a fire on an oil tanker that entered a prohibited zone with its tracking device turned off, describing the incident as a consequence of the vessel’s illegal passage.
International Responses and Divergent Assessments
- The Institute for the Study of War (October 13) said Iran appears to be targeting commercial vessels conducting ship-to-ship transfers to undermine energy shipments and may be developing anti-ship missile capabilities.
Conflicting Reports and Information Gaps
Sources differ on the exact number of vessels attacked. Bloomberg cites four tankers hit on October 11, while the Caspian Post reports six ships targeted on October 13 and a cumulative 18 commercial vessels in the first 12 days of October. The National Maritime Trade Operations centre recorded 12 attacks between September 28 and October 5, whereas Windward’s data shows 31 daily transits in late September but does not specify how many were intercepted. Satellite imagery provides only intermittent snapshots of loading buoy usage, leaving a gap in real-time verification of export terminal activity.