Full Breakdown
Florida Governor Race Shows Divergent Polls as Election Approaches
By Drooid · · How we work
Conflicting Poll Results
A Stetson University poll released October 13 showed Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 52 % to 41 % among modeled likely voters, with 5 % undecided and 3 % supporting another candidate. The same period, a Change Research survey conducted October 8 – 10 reported the candidates tied at 47 % each, with 5 % undecided. A St. Pete Polls survey from October 5 – 7 also found a 45 %-45 % tie, adding 4 % for other choices and 7 % undecided. A YouGov poll covering September 28 – October 5 placed Donalds ahead 47 % to 45 %, with 1 % for another candidate and 7 % undecided. An NBC 6/Telemundo 51 poll from September 28 – October 1 showed Donalds at 48 % versus Jolly’s 41 %, with 10 % undecided. Decision Desk HQ recently shifted its race rating from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican,” aligning with assessments from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, all of which label the contest “Lean Republican.”
Campaign Funding Disparities
Financial filings as of September 25 indicate Donalds has raised $134.4 million and spent $91.7 million across his campaign account and political committee. Jolly’s campaign has raised $16.7 million and spent $11.2 million, highlighting a substantial resource gap between the two candidates.
Political Context and Stakes
The race follows Governor Ron DeSantis’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open-seat contest in a state where Republicans have expanded their margins in recent cycles—DeSantis won re-election in 2022 by nearly 20 percentage points, and former President Donald Trump carried Florida by double digits in the 2024 presidential election. Donalds carries Trump’s endorsement and campaigns on tax cuts and cost reductions, while Jolly, a former Republican congressman turned Democrat, emphasizes housing, healthcare, education, and opposition to data-center expansion. Analysts view the contest as a barometer for Trump’s influence in Florida and for Democratic competitiveness in a state trending Republican.
Early-Voting Schedule
Florida’s general election is set for November 3. Early voting begins in some counties on October 19, with a mandatory statewide early-voting window from October 24 through October 31, though individual counties may offer additional days.