Full Breakdown
Amazon Deforestation Hits Record Low as Brazil’s Presidential Run-off Looms
By Drooid · · How we work
Record Low Deforestation and the Election Context
Satellite monitoring by Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) shows that between August 2025 and July 2026 the Amazon lost 3,335 sq km of forest – a 41.8 % decline from the previous year and the lowest figure since the Prodes series began in 1988. The adjacent Cerrado savanna recorded 5,516 sq km of loss, its smallest annual total since 2001. These results arrive as Brazil prepares for a presidential run-off on October 25 between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Background and Policy Shifts
When Lula returned to office in January 2023, he pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2030. His administration revived the 2004 Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), reinstated environmental officials, and restored satellite-based enforcement that had been weakened under the previous term.
Data and Statistics
- Amazon loss (Aug 2025-Jul 2026): 3,335 sq km, 41.8 % down from 5,731 sq km the year before.
- Cerrado loss: 5,516 sq km, 23.8 % down year-on-year.
- Fire activity: 1,679 fires recorded in Amazonas during the first two weeks of October, a 253 % surge versus the same period last year.
Why It Matters
The Amazon stores about 60 % of the world’s tropical forest carbon and influences global climate patterns. A sustained decline supports Brazil’s climate commitments and counters emissions from forest loss. Politically, the figures have become a barometer of Lula’s environmental credibility and a point of contention for Flávio Bolsonaro, whose platform emphasizes “strategic” use of natural resources.
Official Statements & Responses
- President Lula posted on X that the government’s goal remains “zero illegal deforestation by 2030.”
- Environment Minister João Paulo Capobianco called the Amazon drop “historic.”
- The administration announced additional funding for firefighting in Amazonas and coordination with state governor Roberto Cidade.
Criticism & Opposition
- Former environment minister Marina Silva warned that Flávio Bolsonaro will try to continue his father’s “perverse project” to destroy the Amazon.
On-the-Ground Reports of Wildfires
Residents of Manaus reported severe smoke, with one biologist saying the air felt “like a barbecue grill.” Scientists noted that “nearly all ignitions in the region are caused by human activity, mainly to renew pastures or clear land.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Environment Minister Capobianco suggested the fire surge could be “premeditated,” yet investigators have not identified who started the fires. Satellite analyses by NASA indicate official counts may understate fire extent by about 40 % in some areas.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The country is in a state of calamity. To make ends meet or buy anything, you have to work two or three jobs just to pay the bills,” — Sara Machado
- “We come home, and the house is full of smoke,” — Susana Braz
- “The figures released today are a historic achievement,” — Marcio Astrini
What’s Next
A final televised debate is scheduled for October 23, after which the two candidates will face voters in the October 25 run-off. The election outcome will determine whether Brazil’s current deforestation-reduction trajectory continues.