Maine Senate Race Tightens as Collins and Jackson Make Final Appeals

In the week before the November 3 election, Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are intensifying outreach across Maine. Recent polls show Jackson with a narrow lead of about two points among likely voters, while prediction-market odds give him roughly a 60 % chance of victory. The contest is viewed as pivotal for control of the U.S. Senate.

Troy Jackson makes final pitch to Maine voters in seven-figure ad blitz

Collins is the sole Republican senator from a state that rejected former President Donald Trump in all three of his presidential bids. She has traditionally relied on a bipartisan image and personal popularity, winning re-election in 2020 despite earlier polls favoring Democrat Sara Gideon. Maine voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points in 2024, giving Democrats optimism that national trends could tip the Senate seat.

Newsweek

Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from Allagash, entered the race after former Democratic contender Graham Platner withdrew amid sexual-assault allegations. He has endorsements from former President Barack Obama, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Rep. Ro Khanna.

Troy Jackson makes final pitch to Maine voters in seven-figure ad blitz

• Polls: Recent surveys consistently place Jackson around 49 % and Collins near 47 % of likely voters.

Marist Poll Shows Troy Jackson Trailing Susan Collins by 2 Points in Maine Senate Race: how 7 outlets framed it

• Prediction markets: Odds on Kalshi and Polymarket give Jackson about a 60 % chance of winning.

Newsweek

• Fundraising: Jackson out-raised Collins 4-to-1 in the latest quarter, though Collins still leads in total receipts.

Newsweek

• Heating-oil reserve: Collins announced the release of 315,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to aid Mainers before winter.

Newsweek

• Absentee voting: In-person absentee voting ran Oct 5-29; as of Oct 26, 251,036 ballots were requested and 197,104 returned.

Newsweek

Collins thanked the staff of Moody’s Collision Center in Springvale on X, highlighting the business’s employee-owned model. In ads she cited broadcaster Bill Green’s praise, describing herself as “America’s most independent senator,” and pointed to her vote for the bipartisan Ratepayer Protection Act as protection against higher electricity rates from AI-driven data centers.

Newsweek

Jackson has called for state-level guardrails on data-center development, warning that unchecked projects could raise electricity costs and strain water supplies. He criticized Collins’s ad referencing “buying a cord of wood,” calling it out of touch.

Newsweek

Democratic commentator Jordan Wood denounced Collins’s ad as “despicable,” arguing the “cord of wood” line demeaned working-class voters. The exchange highlighted the cultural divide over campaign rhetoric.

Newsweek

Polls vary modestly, with the Marist poll showing a 2-point Jackson lead and the Washington Post/George Mason poll indicating a 4-point advantage. Prediction-market odds exceed the highest poll percentages, suggesting divergent expectations among traders versus surveyed voters. The impact of the heating-oil release on voter sentiment remains unmeasured.

Newsweek

• “Great to meet the team at Moody’s Collision Center today in Springvale. Moody’s provides reliable service to customers across southern Maine and, as an employee-owned business, it invests in those who work there. Thanks for all you do to keep Mainers moving!” — Susan Collins

Newsweek

• “This November, Mainers will decide the direction of this whole country,” — Troy Jackson

Troy Jackson makes final pitch to Maine voters in seven-figure ad blitz

Absentee voting concluded on Oct 29, and ballots will be counted in the days leading up to Election Day on Nov 3. Both campaigns will rely on remaining outreach efforts and the release of final voter-turnout figures to gauge the race’s outcome.

Newsweek