Full Breakdown
Trump’s Chillicothe Rally: A Final Push in Ohio’s Midterms
By Drooid · · How we work
In this breakdown
01
Core Event
President Donald Trump held a rally at Ohio University’s Chillicothe campus on October 28, 2026. The “Midterm Rally” began at 7 p.m. and was his third Ohio stop in 26 days, aimed at energizing Republican voters ahead of the November 3, 2026 election.
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What Polls Show About the Ohio Senate Race
02
Background & Context
- Ohio voted for Trump by 11 points in 2024; recent polls show former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Sen. Jon Husted by 3-4 points in the special Senate race.
- The gubernatorial contest pits Democrat Dr. Amy Acton against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, whose campaign has drawn criticism for an ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother.
- Chillicothe’s economy has been unsettled since the 2025 closure of the Pixelle paper mill, which employed roughly 800 workers. The site is now operated by U.S. Paper Mill for glove production, aerospace R&D, and a data-center project, but promised federal contracts have not materialized.
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03
Data & Statistics
- Early-voting returns in Defiance County (by October 13) showed Democratic-affiliated voters outpacing Republicans, despite Trump’s 2024 69 % win in Ross County.
- Prediction-market pricing (Kalshi, Polymarket) lists Brown’s chance at 68-69 % versus Husted’s 31-32 % as of mid-October.
- Polling averages (RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin) place Brown ahead by 3.3-4.2 points.
- The former Pixelle mill employed about 800 workers; the new U.S. Paper Mill plans to rehire some of those employees.
04
Why It Matters / Impact
- The rally is a last-minute effort to boost Republican turnout, a factor the RNC’s Midwest communications director says “really comes down to turnout.”
- Economic concerns—high gas prices, property-tax hikes, and opposition to data-center projects—are influencing voter sentiment and could narrow the Republican advantage in both the Senate and governor’s races.
- Trump’s focus on local issues ties national campaign messaging to the economic anxieties of Ohio’s blue-collar communities.
05
Official Statements & Responses
- “Midterms really come down to turnout,” said Hunter Lovell, Midwest regional communications director for the RNC.
- Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) called Chillicothe “the center of gravity” for the Republican Party.
- Governor Mike DeWine and former Governor John Kasich urged Ramaswamy to withdraw the controversial ad; Trump defended the ad’s content.
- Sen. Jon Husted said he was “working out” after Trump’s remarks about his physique.
06
Criticism & Opposition
- Amy Acton condemned the Ramaswamy ad as “exploiting my childhood.”
- Former President Barack Obama called the ad a “low” that should not be tolerated.
- Richard McQuirt, Chillicothe City Councilman, expressed disappointment that promised “America first” contracts for glove manufacturing had not arrived.
07
On-the-Ground Reports
- Councilman McQuirt noted the community was “taken by surprise” when U.S. Paper Mill announced expansion into aerospace and data-center development, underscoring uncertainty about future jobs.
- Chillicothe schools released students early and canceled after-school activities on October 28 to accommodate anticipated traffic and road closures.
08
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Polling averages show Brown ahead by a few points, while prediction-market prices give Brown a larger lead; the two metrics differ on the size of the advantage.
- Analysts have not reached a consensus on whether Trump’s earlier Ohio visits produced a measurable “bounce” for Husted; modest poll shifts are noted but causality remains unproven.