Texas Midterms 2026: Democrats Close In on Historic Statewide Wins

On the eve of the November 3 midterm election, Texas voters face two close statewide contests. State Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, while Democrat Rep. Gina Hinojosa trails three-term Republican Governor Greg Abbott by only a few points. Polls place Talarico at 49 % to Paxton’s 43 % and Hinojosa within single-digit margins of Abbott. A Democratic win would be the first statewide victory for the party since 1994.

Reuters

Texas has been a Republican stronghold for three decades, with the GOP controlling state government since 2003. Latino voters now account for roughly 28 % of early voters, up from 20 % four years earlier, and 1.56 million Latinos have cast early ballots this cycle—nearly double 2022. Among likely Latino voters, Talarico leads 54 % to 41 % and Hinojosa leads 56 % to 42 % (UT polling).

Democratic enthusiasm seen among less-frequent voters in key states of Texas and Georgia, analysis shows

Federal Election Commission data show Republicans have spent over $300 million on ads for Paxton, compared with $102 million for Talarico. Republican strategist Dave Carney, adviser to Governor Abbott, said the party’s ground game is “peaking late by design.” Democrats have emphasized the cost-of-living crisis and the influence of billionaire donors, notably Elon Musk, who contributed nearly $160 million to support Paxton.

Reuters

Jill Tate, president of the Texas Federation of Republican Women, noted that about 40 % of the conservative women she contacts harbor doubts about Paxton because of his marital problems. Dr. Mark Jones, a political analyst at Rice University, warned that “you have a very unpopular Republican president in the White House who’s dragging down Republican candidates,” suggesting national headwinds could affect GOP performance in Texas.

Reuters

Paxton’s personal life has become a focal point for Republican women voters. State Sen. Angela Paxton filed for divorce, accusing her husband of adultery. Tate estimates 59 % of Republican women view Paxton unfavorably, compared with 71 % of Republican men who still support him. Conservative activist Natalie Arceneaux contended that Texas will “remain solidly red” in the foreseeable future.

Reuters

• “Anybody that’s my skin color is fair game,” said Rick Arredondo, a 52-year-old Fort Worth welder, after ICE raids in his neighborhood.

Reuters

• Vanessa Dalay, 23, described the raids as “radicalizing” her and pledged to vote Democrat for the first time.

Reuters

Polling from Reuters and CNN both show Talarico ahead of Paxton (49 % vs 43 %). Early-vote modeling varies: a Reuters analysis suggests 64 % of voters who have not participated in the last four federal elections are likely to vote Democrat, while ABC News estimates 52 % for Georgia and 64 % for Texas. No source provides definitive turnout figures, leaving the impact of demographic shifts uncertain.

Fox News (website)

The November 3 ballot will decide whether Democrats can break a three-decade Republican monopoly on Texas statewide offices. With over 5 million early ballots cast as of October 19, both parties are intensifying outreach in the final weeks. The outcome will influence Texas politics and the national balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

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