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Poll Shows Democrat James Talarico Leading Paxton in Texas

By Drooid · Oct 31, 2026 · How we work

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Summary

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
CNN’s poll shows Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 43% among likely Texas voters.
Talarico leads 63% of Latino voters and 64% of voters of color, including 22% who supported U.S. President Donald Trump.
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats, with three currently held by Republicans, to control the chamber.

History

The 1994 Republican Revolution, culminating in the November 1994 elections, handed the GOP a 54-seat Senate majority for the first time since 1954. Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America mobilized 12 million volunteers, while the Republican Party captured 54 of 100 Senate seats, a gain of eight. Today's Texas Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton mirrors that 1994 swing, as Democrats now need four net pickups to reclaim Senate control. If Talarico wins, the Senate could shift toward Democratic policy priorities, echoing the legislative realignment that followed the 1994 GOP takeover.

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The 1994 Republican Revolution, culminating in the November 1994 elections, handed the GOP a 54-seat Senate majority for the first time since 1954. Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America mobilized 12 million volunteers, while the Republican Party captured 54 of 100 Senate seats, a gain of eight. Today's Texas Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton mirrors that 1994 swing, as Democrats now need four net pickups to reclaim Senate control. If Talarico wins, the Senate could shift toward Democratic policy priorities, echoing the legislative realignment that followed the 1994 GOP takeover.

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